Asian Century Scenario: Shares of Asian GDP

Afghanistan: <1%

Azerbaijan: <1%

Kazakhstan: <1%

Kyrgyz Republic: <1%

Mongolia: <1%

Pakistan: <1%

Tajikistan: <1%

Uzbekistan: <1%

China: 39%

Middle Income Trap Scenario: Shares of Asian GDP

Afghanistan: <1%

Azerbaijan: <1%

Kazakhstan: 1.2%

Kyrgyz Republic: <1%

Mongolia: <1%

Pakistan: 1.5%

Tajikistan: <1%

Uzbekistan: <1%

China: 30%

Note the cumulative difference for the CAREC countries (we leave aside PRC) – $4.5 trillion vs. $2.5 trillion in 2050 – the gap is not so big in 2020 as the cumulative effect of being “stuck” shows up mostly after 2020.  In either scenario, the share of the CAREC 9 in Asia’s GDP is small, 3 or 4 %.