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The basic
problem is that “we” simply do not know if and when the next major influenza
pandemic (one that causes enormous numbers of disease and death), may
“emerge”. The massive 1976 Swine flu vaccine program was approved by all
of the responsible public health decision makers (CDC, NIH, etc.) primarily
because of the fear that if another disastrous pandemic like the 1918 Swine
flu pandemic emerged and the
development of a flu vaccine program was not started immediately, that this
would be irresponsible – i.e., from the public health perspective, it was
better to be “safe” than “sorry”! In addition, “enormous numbers of death
and illness” cannot be measured at the beginning of any pandemic and this is
probably why WHO deleted the phrase “with enormous numbers of death and
illness” from its 2005 definition of a flu pandemic.
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