Using a curve-fitting and extrapolation model (Asian Epidemic Model), the East-West Center and its collaborators explored the impacts of HIV prevention efforts.  They concluded from their modeling effort that without aggressive prevention programs, that both Cambodia and Thailand would now be looking at expanding epidemics with 10–15% of their adult populations living with HIV/AIDS, instead of the declining epidemics of 1-2% currently seen. They credit the AIDS program in Cambodia with preventing about a million HIV infections (by 2007) and the Thai AIDS program with preventing over 6 million HIV infections by 2003.  However, by applying this same naïve logic, HIV prevention programs in Myanmar also have to be given credit for keeping HIV prevalence at 1-2%.
   These modelers totally ignore the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of HIV and have assumed for their modeling that the pattern and prevalence of sexual risk behaviors and HIV facilitating and protective factors are identical for these Asian countries and sub-Saharan African countries. What is shocking to me is that WHO swallowed this modeling – hook, line, and sinker!  I would expect my grandson, who is just finishing his sophomore year in high school to know better!