One of the UN Millennium Development Goals is to “halt and reverse the spread of AIDS by 2015” but it is not clear what this means. Based on UNAIDS estimates of decreasing HIV prevalence rates in SSA starting about the new millennium, the annual HIV incidence rate had to have peaked in the mid-1990s and HIV prevalence rates began to decrease around the year 2000. Thus, HIV transmission in SSA “turned the corner” about a decade ago and if reversal of HIV transmission can be considered the same as “reverse the spread of AIDS,” then this goal was met about a decade ago.

Does this mean the AIDS pandemic is over - absolutely not! The TB pandemic may have peaked a Century or more ago, but the annual toll of TB has continued to keep this disease among the leading causes of global deaths. For the AIDS pandemic it does mean that annual global HIV incidence has peaked and HIV prevalence is now decreasing. Nevertheless, in Africa and Asia, annual AIDS deaths will continue to be at least a couple of million for several decades. In addition, annual HIV incidence in those populations where significant epidemic HIV transmission has occurred will continue to be unacceptably high. In SSA, at least 1 to 2 million new HIV infections can still be expected annually for at least another decade or two.