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In the U.K.,
sporadic CJD incidence was 0.53 cases per million person-years in
1970-79, 0.80 in 1980-89, 1.18 in 1990-97.
This increase
has been attributed to diagnostic trends resulting from improvements
in case ascertainment, especially among older patients. However,
ongoing epidemiological surveys are investigating a number of putative
environmental risk factors.
The aim
of this study was to
quantify the consequences of two possible interpretations for the rise
in sporadic CJD incidence:
This rise is
governed by improvements in case ascertainment, and is greater
among old people (the most likely interpretation);
This rise may
depend on a cohort factor, which may correspond to the zoonotic
hypothesis (a totally hypothetical interpretation).
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