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Five distinct phases mark the evolution of the HIV epidemic in South Africa:

i. Pre-1987: localised clade B epidemic

ii. 1988-1993: generalised clade C epidemic starts

iii. 1994-1998: explosive epidemic and low mortality

iv. 1998 - 2002: Incidence high but stable and mortality rising rapidly

v. Post 2002: AIDS-related mortality rates climb until they exceed the HIV incidence rates resulting in an observed decline in HIV prevalence