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The basic reproductive rate (Ro) is the average number of persons in a totally susceptible population, infected by an infectious case during the case’s entire infectious period.

Ro = b x k x D where b is the attack rate, k is the number of potentially infectious contacts the average person in the population has per unit time and D is the duration of infectivity of an infected person.

An approximation of Ro can be calculated as 1 + the average lifespan of the individual’s in the population/the average age at infection.

If Ro < 1, then every new generation of infection will affect fewer individuals and eventually the disease will die out. The value of Ro and the % of the population that is vaccinated affects disease spread and die out.

If Ro = 1 then approximately the same number of individuals are infected with every new generation causing endemicity.

If Ro > 1 then there is an ever increasing number of infected individuals.