State of the Economy | Probability of State | Return (A) | Return (B) | Portfolio Weight (A) | Portfolio Weight (B) |
Boom | 40% | 0.30 | -0.05 | 50% | 50% |
Recession | 60% | -0.10 | 0.25 |
E(RA) = 0.4 * 0.3 + 0.6 * (-0.10) = 0.06
E(RB) = 0.4 * (-0.05) + 0.6 * 0.25 = 0.13
Expected Returns for a Portfolio with 50% of your money invested in A and 50% invested in B:
If there is a Boom, we have: RP = 0.5 * 0.30 + 0.5 * (-0.05) = 0.125
If there is a Recession we have: RP = 0.5 * (-0.10) + 0.5 * 0.25 = 0.075
hence,
E(RP) = 0.4 * 0.125 + 0.6 * 0.075 = 0.095
Variance and S.D. of the Returns for Stock A and Stock B:
VAR(RA) = 0.4 * (0.30 - 0.06)2 + 0.6 * (-0.10
- 0.06)2 = 0.0384
VAR(RB) = 0.4 * (-0.05 - 0.13)2 + 0.6 * (0.25 - 0.13)2 = 0.0216
SD(RA) = (0.0384)0.5 = 0.1960
SD(RB) = (0.0216)0.5 = 0.1470
Covariance and Correlation Coefficient for Stock A and Stock B:
COV(RARB) = 0.4 * (0.3 - 0.06) * (-0.05 - 0.13) + 0.6 * (-0.10 - 0.06) * (0.25 - 0.13) = -0.0288
CORR(RARB) = -0.0288 / (0.1960 * 0.1470) = -0.99
Variance and S.D. of the Portfolio (2 ways):
Using the formula for the variance of a portfolio:
VAR(RP) = (0.5)2 * 0.0384 + (0.5)2 * 0.0216 + 2 * 0.5 * 0.5 * -0.0288 = 0.0006
SD(RP) = (0.0006)0.5 = 0.0245
Or, using the portfolio returns and expected returns directly:
VAR(RP) = 0.4 * (0.125 - 0.095)2 + 0.6 * (0.075 - 0.095)2 = 0.0006
SD(RP) = (0.0006)0.5 = 0.0245
Result:
Because of the high negative correlation (-0.99 and -1.00 is the lowest),
we have a strong diversification effect.
The movements of the two stock cancel each other almost out, when one
does well, the other does poorly, and
vice versa. You can see that the individual risks of the two stocks
[SD(RA) and SD(RB)] are much higher than when
combined in equal proportions into a portfolio.
Exercise:
See what happens when you put 75% of your money in stock A and 25% in
stock B. Is there still a diversification effect?