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RRR!111RRR999 ZZZ!!!RRR111ccc{{{ccc111 ZZZkkkkkk޵111!!!JJJ999kkkJJJ cccsss {{{JJJcccRRR {{{JJJ1RRR111 !!!* JJJ!BBB)))sssRRR 111ssssss111111{{{kkkssskkk kkkBBB!!!999RRR))) kkkccc999 !!!!!!)))))) !!!5111RRRsss1 {{{!!!)))sss111BBB111999 sssJJJJJJccc޵999!!! 1111BBBsss, kkk'111kkk ))))))!!!)))999sssRRR999kkkRRR ZZZ6)))!!!3 {{{(N&"RRRJJJkkkb999ccc2RRRkkk*P)$cccޥgkkksssBBBsss)))2 RRRkkk111sss;#RRR`999BBBJJJ2 BBB111RRRZZZsssccc)))kkksss\ 111111ZZZ3BBBRRR)))ց 999kkk^ 999cccsss6111d RRRccc^ccckkk޵BBBZZZ9MJJJZZZ999JJJ)))ﭭ[ )))!!!ccc)))JJJ0999BBB999_!!!RRR9999sssi111kkkccc:)))j999{{{;l:20Default   2( 4 <DL2XXXC0 $VerdanaCS,\  `&Times New RomanS  2( 4 <DL2  $Verdanahttp://Www.frontpagemag.com,(O$http://Www.cawp.rutgers.eduhttp://www.gallup.com/cpmtent/ci+11992http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr880329.asp- -mailto:Sbhansen@pitt.eduhttp://womenshistory.about.com/library/weekly/aa010128a.htmhttp://www.ourfuture.org/docUploads/greenbergelection04memo.pdf   http://www.gallup.com/cpmtent/ci+11992http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm.http://www.galllup.com/poll/con22'A`"MS Sans Serif !USUS.,  _ 68(XXdd8;Oa    AwomanforU.S.President?Howthe WaronTerrorwillaffecttheodds  <    `     h    `  0  0h(#(#SusanB.Hansen h(#h(#    `    DepartmentofPoliticalScience      `    UniversityofPittsburgh      `     h 412/6487272  t    `    47 2O  5  Sbhansen@pitt.edu6&2O:  7 h  `  Abstract: EvenbeforetheterroristattacksofSeptember11,2001,womenintheU.S.faced t  seriousculturalandinstitutionalobstaclestobecomingpresident.Thispaperwilldiscusstrends d  inpopularsupportforelectingawomanaspresidentandthedemographicsofthosesupporting P  oropposingsuchacandidacy.Althoughtheproportionofwomenholdingelectiveofficehas <  increaseddramaticallyintheU.S.sincethe1970s,fewwomentodatehavemadeittothepool ( ofeligibility(Governor,senator,vicepresident)fromwhichpresidentialcandidateshave  generallybeenselected.Andeventhosewhodowillfaceskepticismfromvoters,themedia,and  partyleadersabouttheirleadershipqualitiesandabilitiestoserveasCommanderin_Chief.  ____Ananalysisofpresidentialcandidatestraitsbasedon2000and2004ANESsurveysfoundthat ` beingperceivedasa strongleaderwasabetterpredictorofvotechoicebeforeratherthanafter L 9/11.In2004,voters(especiallywomen)weremorelikelytofavoracandidatewho caresabout 8 peoplelikeyou.____Sincefemalecandidateshaveoftenbeenperceivedasmorecompassionate, $ moral,andhonest__,thesequalitiesshould__helptheminfutureracesfornationaloffice._ t Apublicagendafocusedonterrorismandwarmayindeedaddtovotersdoubtsaboutwomens L leadershipanddiscouragequalifiedwomenfromseekinghigherpoliticaloffice.However, 8  womenpoliticianshavefoundopportunitiestoprovetheir toughnessandtheirskillsatcrisis $! _management.___ԀAsthemilitaristicapproachto_combatting_Ԁterrorismisincreasinglycalledinto " question,opportunitiesfornewleadershipandadifferentagendamayimprove_womens " chances._ #    -&* Ї_DidthetrendofelectoralgainsforwomenintheU.S.cometoanabruptendonSeptember11,   2001? Withthecountrysuddenlyfocusedonwarpreparedness,theoncebrightprospectsfor   womenseekingelectiveofficedimmed.Somewomendroppedout;otherssawtheirchances  t diminishinthepolls...Womenhadtofacethehardrealitythatvotersmaynottrustthemtolead  ` thecountryinatimeofwar(_Clift_Ԁand_Brazaitis_Ԁ2003:ix).__ L  Evenbefore9/11,severalculturalandinstitutionalfactorsmadeitunlikelyforawomantobe $  electedpresident(andthusCommanderinChief)oftheU.S.Recenttrendsinpublicopinion, t  mediacoverage,andtheproportionofwomenholdingpublicofficemighthavesuggestedthat `  theoddswereshifting.Buttheeventsof9/11/2001andtheensuing WaronTerrorismhave L  changedthepoliticallandscape._Bystrom_Ԁetal.(2004:219)arguethat Anincreasedconcern 8  withmilitaryanddefensematterswouldseemtoputfemalecandidatesatadisadvantage, $ particularlyinraceswithnationalimport.Awomanwhocouldaccommodatetothesetrends  mightyetgainamajorpartynomination.Butwomen(andprobablymenaswell)whoarenot  perceivedassufficiently toughonnationalsecurityissueswillfaceoppositionfromparty  leadersaswellasmanyvoters.However,asthemilitaristicapproachtocombatingterrorismis p increasinglycalledintoquestion,opportunitiesfornewleadershipandadifferentagendamay \ emerge.Womenpoliticianswhocanprovetheir toughnessandtheirskillsatcrisis H managementmayyethaveachanceatnationaloffice.. 4 ЀThispaperwillconsidertrendsinfourfactorsthat_could_Ԁinfluencewomenschancesofgaining p  thePresidency.Ifirstreviewtrendsinpublicopinionconcerningsupportforawomanfor \ president.Ithendiscusschangesinthenumberofwomeninthepoolofeligibilityfromw_hich_ H  seriouspresidentialcontendersarelikelytoemerge.Third,Iusesurveydatafromthe 4  AmericanNationalElectionStudies(_ANES_)toshowhowthe_perceived_Ԁleadership  ! characteristicsofpresidentialcandidatesaffectedvotechoicein2000and2004.Fourth,I  " considerhowshiftsinthepoliticalagendaandmediacoveragecouldhelporhinderwomens " candidacies.Onthebasisofthesetrends,Isuggestsomestrategicoptionsforwomencandidates #  seekingthepresidency. $l!  I.Popularsupportforawomanaspresident  &D # Womenasheadsofstateorgovernment?Inmanycountriesaroundtheworld,itisnolonger ("% unusual(orevenremarkable)forpartiestonominate,andvoterstovotefor,womenforhigh l)#& electiveoffice.Since1932,78womenhavebeenelectedasPresidentorPrimeMinister(Lewis X*#' 2004).AndincountriessuchasRwanda,Sweden,andDenmark,over40percentofseatsinthe D+$( nationallegislatureareheldbywomen(TheWorldsWomen2000).However,nowomanhas 0,%) everbeennominatedbyamajorpartyasacandidateforpresidentintheU.S.,althoughseveral -&* havesoughtthenominationorhaverunasthirdpartycandidates.1 d    `     h      p      x . P Onepossiblereasonislingeringpublicoppositiontoafemalechiefexecutive._Inglehart_Ԁand < Norris(2003)foundthatattitudestowardwomenaspoliticalleaderswereabetterpredictorof (  theproportionofwomeninnationallegislaturesthansocialorinstitutionalfactors,suchasthe   levelofdevelopmentorthetypeofelectoralsystem.Amongthe74countriestheysurveyed,the   U.S.ranked10thintheproportionofrespondentsdisagreeingthat Menmakebetterpolitical   leadersthanwomen(_Inglehart_ԀandNorris2003:137).2YettheU.S.stillhadalowerproportion  t ofwomeninthenationallegislaturethantheirmodelpredicted.  ` _S____urveys_Ԁsincethe1930shavedocumentedincreasingpopularsupportforelectingawomanas 8  presidentoftheU._S.Still,a_ԀsmallbutpersistentminorityofAmericansinsiststhattheywould $  NOTvoteforawomanforpresidentevenifnominatedbytheirownparty.Figure1showsthe t  responsestotheGallupPollsquestionastowhethertherespondentwouldvoteforawoman `  nominatedforpresidentbytheirownparty ifshewerequalifiedforthejob.Weseeadramatic L  increaseovertimeinthepercentresponding yes,from31percentin1937to92percentin 8  1999.ThisparallelssimilarincreasesintheproportionofAmericanssayingtheywouldvotefor $ anAfricanAmerican,Catholic,orJewforpresidentiftheywere wellqualified(although  wellqualified atheistsstilldonotreceivemuchpopular_support:_ԀNewport1999).However,  therehasbeenaslightbutsignificantdeclinebetween1999and2003inpopularwillingnessto  voteforawomanforpresident(JonesandMoore2003),andtheeventsof9/11/2001maywell p beresponsible. \ Lingeringoppositiontovotingforawomanmaybeevengreaterthanthesenumberssuggest; 4 between4and11percentofrespondentsanswer noopinionwhenaskedthisGallupquestion.   Andsomeofthese,aswellassomewhoanswered yes,maybeunwillingtoadmittoan p  interviewer(whoismorethanlikelytobefemale)thattheyopposevotingforawomanfor \ president.Ofcourse,evenposingthequestion_problematizes_Ԁtheissue:Galluphasnever_asked H whether____voters_ԀwouldsupportawellqualifiedMANfor_President.In2004theFoxNewspoll 4  askedwhetherHillaryClintonwas qualifiedtobePresident,__butdidnotaskthatquestionabout  ! anyofherpotentialopponents.__3_  " Table1showsthedifferencesinsupportforawomanforpresidentacrossvarioussocialgroups. #  Thedemographicbreakdownsthatmighthelpussortouttrendsinopinionwereonlyprovided $l! bytheGallupPollin1987and(toalesserextent)in2003.Basedon1987data,weseelittle %X" evidenceofagendergap,withwomenonlyslightlymorelikelythanmen(83vs.81percent)to &D # saytheywouldsupportawomanforpresident.By2003,supportamongbothmenandwomen '0!$ hadincreased.In1987,thestrongestsupportwasevidentamongcollegegraduates,Westerners, ("% youngervoters,Blacks,andhigherincomeearners.Sincetheproportionofcollegegraduatesin l)#& theU.S.hasbeenincreasing,andtheyarethegroupmostlikelytovote,weshouldexpectthat X*#' politicalsupportforelectingawomanaspresidentshouldincrease.Butclearlysignificant D+$( groupsinthepopulationareunlikelytovoteevenforawellqualifiedwomannominatedbytheir 0,%) ownparty.WeseethelowestlevelsofsupportforawomanforPresidentamongSoutherners, -&* thosewithlesseducationorlowerincomes,peopleover50,andHispanics.Selfidentified d conservatives,Republicans,andevangelicalProtestants(especiallyfundamentalists),whoare P lesslikelytosupportleadershiprolesforwomen,havegrowninnumbersandpoliticalinfluence < sincethe1980s.Thismightalsoaccountforsomeoftherecentfalloffinsupportforelectinga (  womanforpresident.   ! ,XXX!OtherevidencealsoshowsvoterresistancetowomeninhigherexecutiveofficeintheU.S.   DelanoandWinters(1999)findsignificantstatisticalevidenceofelectoraldiscriminationagainst  t womenin highlyprized,singulargubernatorialcontestsbetween1972and1998.After  ` controllingforcandidateandchallengertraits,partisanship,electoralcontexts,andnationaland L  stateeconomicconditions,theyconcludethatelectoraldiscriminationreducedthevoteshareof 8  femalecandidatesforgovernor,especiallyRepublicanwomencandidates.Theyalsoreportthat $  statepartiesweremorelikelytonominateafemaleonlywhentheopposingpartycandidatewas t  perceivedtobetoostronganda sacrificiallambwasrequired. `  _Witt_,_Paget_,andMatthews(1995)foundthatGeraldineFerrarosvicepresidentialcandidacyin 8  1984generatedconsiderableopposition,particularlyfromolderwomenwhoseownsocialstatus $ andlifechoiceswerecalledintoquestionbyasuccessfulwomaninanontraditionalrole.  However,thisoppositionmayhavebeencounterbalancedbytheupsurgeinpoliticalawareness,  interest,andinvolvementbyyoungerwomenofbothpartieswhoweregalvanizedbythe  presenceofawomanontheticket(Hansen1997;_Atkeson_Ԁ2003).Manyfeministsarguedthatthe p Democratsin1984didnottakefulladvantageofFerrarosappeal,forcinghertomakemany \ campaignappearancesintheSouthwhereshefacedopposition,ratherthaninlargercitieswhere H favorablemediacoverageandenthusiasticcrowdsweremorelikely. 4 Facedwiththesedata,partyleadersandconventiondelegatesmaywellhesitatetonominatea p  woman,particularlywhentheU.S.isascloselydividedalongpartisanlinesasitappearstobe \ today.Andvotersmayusethesamecalculus:JohnKerrywontheearlyPresidentialprimariesin H 2004largelybecausehewasperceivedasmore _electable_thanHowardDean.However,as 4  Dolan(2004:156)reports,votingforwomeninherstudyofCongressionalcandidates,1992  ! 2000,wasbasedprimarilyontheverysamefactorsthatpredictedvotesformalecandidates:  " partyaffiliationandincumbencystatus.Demographiccharacteristicsofvoters(sex,race, " education,age,etc.)hadverylimitedimpact.Butshenotesthatissuesweremoreimportantfor #  SenatorialthanforCongressionalcandidates,andpresumablywouldbefarmoreimportantina $l! presidentialcampaignwherevotershavemoreinformationaboutcandidatesstands. %X"  II.Thepoolofeligiblecandidates  '0!$ TheU.S.ranksbelowmanyotherdemocraciesintheproportionofwomenelectedtopublic l)#& office,inpartbecauseofourtwoparty,winnertakeallelectionsandlimiteduseofproportional X*#' representation(_Darcy_,Welch,andClark1994).TheU.S.ranks58thintheworldinthe D+$( proportionofwomeninitsnationallegislature(TheWorldsWomen2000).Yetdespitethese 0,%) structuralbarriers,oneofthemoredramatictrendsinAmericanpoliticssincethe1970shasbeen -&* theincreasednumberofwomenholdingelectiveoffice.Thenasnow,thelowerleveloffices d (countycommissioner,schoolboardmember)arefarmorelikelytobeheldbywomenthanare P higherlevelpositionssuchasgovernororsenator.Aftersuffrage,manywomenarguedthatthey < woulddobetterthanmeninsuch housekeepingrolesinthepublicsector:deliveringsocial (  services,balancingthebudget,cleaningupcorruption(Andersen1996).Therehaveindeedbeen   strikinggainsintheproportionofwomeninlowerlevelsoffices(schoolboardmember,state   legislator,countycommissioner),andgeneralpublicacceptanceofwomeninsuchoffices,many   ofwhicharenonpartisan,parttime,andunpaid.Infact,thestatelegislaturewiththehighest  t proportionofwomen(NewHampshire)isthelowestpaid.  ` Severalfactorsaccountforthisdramaticgrowthinthenumberoffemaleofficeholders. 8  Socialattitudesconcerningappropriaterolesforwomenhavechanged,inpartasareflectionof $  demographicchanges:smallerfamilies,morewomenworkingoutsidethehome,higherlevelsof t  educationforwomen(morewomenthanmennowgraduatefromcollege).The poolof `  eligibilityforelectiveofficeforwomenhasexpanded,asmoreandmorewomenattendlaw L  school,owntheirownbusinesses,earnsizeableincomes,andacquirepoliticalexperiencein 8  lowerofficesorthroughworkonotherscampaigns.Someobservershadhopedthattermlimits $ wouldhelpeaseoutwhitemaleincumbentsandopendoorsforwomenandminoritygroup  members,althoughthereislittleevidencethatsuchchangeshaveoccurredinstateswithterm  limits(_Doron_ԀandHarris2001).Butredistrictingforbothstateandfederalofficeafterthe  decennialcensusoftenleadstoopenseatraceswherewomencandidateshaveabetterchance. p DatafromtheCenterforAmericanWomeninPolitics(_CAWP_)showthatthenumberofwomen \ electedtoCongressandstatelegislaturesincreasedmoreinpostCensusyears(1982,1992, H 2002)thaninotheryears(_CAWP_Ԁ2004). 4 Ѐ   Americanpoliticalpartieshavealsochanged.Formanyyearsaftersuffrage,themajorparties p  supportedonlywomenwhowerewidowsofincumbents,orsacrificiallambsrunningfor \  hopelessraces.Butthepartieshaveslowlycometorecognizewomencandidatesappealto H voters(themajorityofwhoarenowfemale),theirabilitytoraisefunds,andtheirpoliticalskills 4  oftenhonedinpreviouscampaigns(Young2003;Freeman2000).However,intheAmerican  ! systemsinglememberdistrictsandlackofproportionalrepresentationaresignificantbarriersto  " politicalpartiesabilitiestonominatefemalecandidates.InEuropeancountrieswithdifferent " electoralsystems,politicalpartieshavehadmoresuccessselectingandelectingwomen.Parties #  inmanycountriesaroundtheworldhavealsoadoptedcandidatequotastoincreasethe $l! proportionofwomenelected(_Htun_Ԁ2004).ButintheU.S.,quotasandaffirmativeactionhave %X" littlepopularsupport.Thepoliticalpartyleadersandmediacommentatorswhohelpdefine &D #  seriouspresidentialcandidatesarethusunlikelytomovefarfromtheestablishedroutestothe '0!$ WhiteHouse. ("% Still,the poolofeligibilityforfemalecandidatesforPresidentremainssmall(Whickerand X*#' Isaacs1999).Giventhenumbersofwomengainingvaluableexperienceinloweroffices,we D+$( wouldexpectmoreofthemtorunforsenatororgovernorinfutureyears.Buttodateonly26 0,%) womenhavebeengovernors(althoughfarmore,over60,havebeenlieutenantgovernors),and -&* only14womenarecurrentlyintheSenate(CenterforAmericanWomeninPolitics[_CAWP_] d 2004).ThesearetheofficesthathavetraditionallyservedasroutestothePresidency,withonly P afewexceptionssince1932.Eisenhowerhadneverheldelectiveoffice,buthadastellarrecord < asageneralduringWorldWarII.GeraldineFerrarowasaHousemembertappedbyWalter (  Mondaletorunforvicepresidentin1984.GeorgeH.W.Bushhadbeenarepresentativefrom   TexasyearsbeforebeingselectedasRonaldReagansvicepresidentin1980,buthehadheld   otherinterveninghighlevelpositionsincludingdirectoroftheCIA.GeraldFordwasamember   oftheHousebeforehisselectionasvicepresident.  t MilitaryleadershiphasbeenanotherroutetothePresidency.Afewwomenhaveadvancedto L  positionsasadmiralsorgeneralsinrecentyears,butonlyinadministrativeorlogisticalpositions. 8  UndercurrentCongressionalruleslimitingwomenscombatroles,femaleofficersareunlikelyto $  acquirethecombatexperienceorwarherostatusthatenabledEisenhower,Grant,orTaylortobe t  electedpresident,oraidedthecandidaciesofJohnKerry,JohnF.Kennedy,orJohnMcCain.On `  theotherhand,therhetoricofsupportforthemilitaryhashelpedevencandidateslikeGeorgeW. L  Bush,whoavoidedserviceinVietNam,gainthepresidency.Andnotablewarheroeslikeformer 8  GeorgiaSenatorMax_Cleland_,Gen.WesleyClarke,JohnMcCain,andJohnKerryhaveall $ suffereddefeats.Butongoingdoubtsaboutawomanas CommanderinChiefwillplagueany  femalecandidateforpresident.   III.Candidateimageandexecutiveleadership p  Inadditiontopartisanshipandissues,votersformimagesofthepersonalqualitiesandabilitiesof H thecandidates.Suchtraitsincludeacandidatescompetence,compassion,honesty,morality,and 4 leadershipability.RecentresearchonAmericanvotingbehaviorhasfoundtheseperceptionsto   bestronglyinfluencedbypartisanidentification,buttheycanexertanimportantindependent p  influenceonthevote!usuallyfarmoresothanissues(MillerandShanks1996:425427). \ _ZernikeandBroder(2004)reportthat Character,notpolicies,matteredthemosttovotersin H 2004.The_Ԁmediaoftenfocusontheseattributesaswell,inpartbecausetheyareimportant,but 4  alsobecauseassessmentofpersonalqualitiesdoesnotrequirethepolicyexpertisethatanalysis  ! ofissueswouldrequireofeitherjournalistsorvoters.Andofcoursecandidateswilltryto  " emphasizetheirownpersonalstrengths(andtheiropponentsweaknesses)intheircampaigns. " Candidateimagesare_gendered_Ԁaswell. Beliefstereotypesincludeideologiesandpolicy $l! pref_erences_;womenareperceivedasmoreliberalandbetterateducationandothersocialissues. %X"  Traitstereotypesidentifywomenasmorecompassionate,willingtocompromise,andpeople &D # oriented,whilemenaremoreassertive,active,andselfconfident(_Huddy_Ԁand_Terkildsen_Ԁ1993; '0!$ AlexanderandAnderson1993).Such genderschemainfluencehowbothmaleandfemale ("% candidatesandtheircampaignmessagesare_perceived.___ԀAsFoxand_Oxley_Ԁ(2003)find,such l)#& stereotypescontributetomorewomenrunningforstateexecutiveoffices(Commissionerof X*#' Education,SecretaryofState)typedasfeminine,whilefewerwomencompeteformore D+$(  masculinestateofficessuchasgovernororattorneygeneral.However,thefinalelection 0,%) resultsshowthatthetypeofofficehasnoimpactonthelikelihoodofwomenwinning;once -&* nominated,theoutcomedependsonthesamefactors(partycompetition,politicalculture, d incumbency)forbothsexes. P HowmightperceivedtraitsaffectawomanschanceofbeingaviablePresidentialcandidate?If (  traitsusuallytypedas masculinearemoreimportanttovoters,femalecandidatesforhighlevel   officecouldfacearougherroad.Butifgenderneutraltraitsarevaluedaswell,womenmight   haveastrongerchance.Beinga strongleaderwouldappeartohavemoremasculine   connotations,whilecaring,honesty,andmoralityhavebeenidentifiedastraitsmoreoftenlinked  t tofemales(_Huddy_Ԁand_Terkildsen_Ԁ1993).Beingviewedas knowledgeableor intelligent  ` shouldbenefiteithersex.Butifmaleandfemalevotershavesignificantlydifferentperceptions, L  candidatesofeithersexmayhavetocrafttheirappealsaccordingly. 8  TheAmericanNationalElectionStudies(_ANES_)for2000and2004includedquestionson t  severalcandidatetraits.AsTable2showsforallrespondents,in2000Gorewasperceivedas `  moreknowledgeable,intelligent,andcompassionatethanBush,butlesshonestandlessofa L  strongleader;bothcandidateswerewidelyperceivedasmoral.In2004,Bushagainwasmore 8  oftenperceivedasastrongleader,butassignificantlylessintelligentorknowledgeablethanJohn $ Kerry.TheDemocraticcandidatein2004heldtheedgeassomeonewho caresaboutpeople  likeyou,butwaswidelyperceivedasunabletomakeuphismind.Whilebothcandidateswere  equallylikelytobeperceivedas moral,Bushwasabitmorelikelytocomeacrossas   dishonestin2004_andas outoftouchin__2000._Ԁ p Significantgenderdifferencesareevidentforonlyafewofthesetraits.In2000,womenwere H morelikelytoperceiveGoreascaringorasastrongleader,andabitlesslikelytoperceiveeither 4 BushorGoreas dishonestor outoftouch.WomenwerealsomorelikelytoagreethatBush   andGorewere moral.In2004,womenweresignificantlymorelikelytoperceive_______Kerry_Ԁas p  strongleaders,andratedKerryassignificantlymoremoralandcaringthanmendid._ \ _Dothesecandidatequalitiesaffecthowpeoplevote?Inboth2000and2004weseeaverystrong 4  relationshipbetweenpeoplesperceptionsofcandidatequalitiesandtheirvotes(Table3).Even  ! inapeacetimeelection(2000),thegammastatisticsindicatesthatthebivariaterelationship  " betweenperceptionsandvotechoicewasstrongestforthe strongleadercue,although " perceptionsthatacandidate caresaboutpeoplelikemerankedaclosesecond.Intelligence, #  _knowledgeability_,andhonestydidlesswellatpredictingvotechoice.In2004,after9/11and $l! duringthewarinIraq,the strongleadercuewasagainstronglyrelatedtovotechoice,butthe %X" perceptionthat Bushcaresaboutpeoplelikeyouwasequallystronglyassociatedwithvote &D # choice._H__onesty,_Ԁintelligence,and_knowledgeability_ԀallmatteredsomewhatmoreforGeorge '0!$ BushthanforJohnKerry.Overall,theassociationbetweentraitsandvotechoicedifferedlittle ("% betweenmalesandfemales.ThemajorexceptionwasthatagreeingthatKerry Cantmakeup l)#& hismindwassignificantlymoreimportantforwomensvotes. X*#' Ofcoursethesalienceofaparticularattributewillvaryfromelectiontoelection,andpeoples 0,%) perceptionsofcandidatesarehighlycoloredbytheirpartisanship.Tofurthertesthowtrait -&* perceptionsmightinfluencevotechoice,logisticregressionwasusedtoanalyzethe2000and d 2004twopartyvoteasafunctionofsex,partyidentification,andthethreemostsalienttraits: P  strongleader, moral,and caresaboutpeoplelikeyou.Theresults(Table4)showthat,as < isusuallythecase,partyidentificationwasastrongpredictorofthevote.Sexhadnosignificant (  impactineitheryear.Butin2000,evenbefore9/11,thetraitthatbestpredictedvotechoicefor   Bushwaswhetherthecandidatewasperceivedasa strongleader.Thisfactorwasstatistically   independentofpartisanidentification,andconsiderablymoreimportantforBushthanfor_Gore.    Caring_Ԁ_wasthetraitthat____best_Ԁ_predicted_ԀavoteforGore,butmatteredlessforBushthanthe  t perceptionthathewas moral(perhapsbecauseofthelingeringimpactoftheClinton_scandals)._  ` Bycontrastin2004,_evenafter_Ԁ9/11andduringthewarwithIraq,whatmatteredmosttovoters 8  waswhetheracandidate caresaboutpeoplelikeyou.Thisperception,thestrongestpredictor $  ofavoteforbothBushandKerry,carriedmoreweightthandidthe strongleadercue.Unlike t  2000,perceptionsthatacandidatewas moralhadnosignificantindependentimpactonthe `  2004vote(althoughasthegammastatisticsindicated,moralityapparentlymatteredmoreto L  votersthanhonesty,knowledge,intelligence,or_decisiveness).__4_   8   IV.Howcanwomenappear Presidential?   The_ANES_Ԁsurveyanalysis_indicates_Ԁthatevenwhenthecountryisatwar,candidates(maleor  female)whoareperceivedas caringaboutpeoplelikeyouwillgainconsiderableelectoral p advantage_(especiallyamongwomen)._ԀHowever,thedataalsosuggestunlessawomancan \ generatetheperceptionthatsheisa strongleader,shewillfaceanuphillbattleforthe H presidency.Widelyheldgenderstereotypesmaymakethisdifficultforwomen.Wilson(2004) 4 describesanexperimentwithtroublingimplications:anaudienceofpotentialvoterswasaskedto   viewcampaignadsfor(mostlyunknown)maleandfemalecandidatesandtoturnadialupor p  downtomeasuretraitsthatmadecandidateseffective._Theresults:_ \ _Ԁ Before_Ԁtheadsevenstarted,whenthecandidatesimplyappearedonthescreenwithout 4  0  speakingaword!infact,beforeheorshehadanyrealtraitsatallotherthangender!the  ! dialersmadedecisionsaboutleadershippotential.Womenstayedevenorweredialed  " down,butmenweredialedupfromthefirstsecond...menhadtheinstantadvantage, " basedontheirmaleness(p.19).# (#(# However,theseadswereforlittleknownwomenrunningforoffice,whostillneededtodefine %X" themselvesformanyvoters.Butwehavewitnessedseveralrecentexamplesofwomenappearing &D # coolandcompetentduringacrisis:JanetRenoasthelongestservingattorneygeneral,Madeleine '0!$ Albrightduringthebombingof_Kosovo_ԀandspeakingbeforetheU.N,Dianne_Feinstein_Ԁafteran ("% assassinationmadehermayorofSanFrancisco.Priorpoliticalexperience,especiallyincrisis l)#& management,mayhelppersuadevotersto dialupratherthandownwhenconfrontedwithan X*#' actualfemalecandidateforhigheroffice._AsofAugust2005,twothirdsofAmericansrated D+$( HillaryClintonasa stronganddecisiveleaderaboutthesamepercentageasforBushinboth 0,%) 2000and2004(Jones2005)._ -&* _____________Candidates_Ԁmustrelyoncampaignadsandmediacoveragetocreateandprojectaparticular d image.Historically,mediacoverageofwomenpoliticianshasemphasizedtheirgender,physical P appearance,noveltyasacandidate,andfamilyrelationships.Suchslantedcoveragewouldnot < helpawomanbuilda strongleaderimage.However,morerecentresearchsuggeststhat (  mediacoverageoffemalecandidateshasbecomemoreequitableintermsofbothqualityand   quantity(_Bystrom_Ԁetal.2004).Further,theemergenceoftheInternetasamajorcampaigntool   mayprovidefemalecandidateswith unlimitedopportunitiesforbalancingmasculineand   feminineissuesandtraitsinselfpresentation(Ibid.,217).Althoughtelevisioncoveragemay  t reinforcegenderstereotypes,malesandfemalesreactsimilarlytoWebbasedinformation.  ` Analysisofmediacoverageofthemostrecentfemalepotentialpresidentialcandidatehas 8  producedmixedresults.InElizabethDolessuccessful2002SenateraceinNorthCarolina,her $  campaignadshighlightedmasculinetraitsandemphasizedherexperience,performance,and t  leadershipaspresidentoftheAmericanRedCrossandamemberoftheCabinet.Yetwhile `  coverageofher1999campaignforPresidentfocusedmoreonissuesandlessonpersonal L  appearance,Dolestillreceivedlessmediacoveragethanmalecandidateswhotrailedherinthe 8  polls,andmoreemphasisonherpersonalitythanherpolicypositions(_Bystrom_Ԁetal.2004:22, $ 150).Bycontrast,HillaryRodhamClintonscampaignfortheSenateinNewYorksucceededin  definingtheissuesintherace,andinkeepingthemediafocusonClintonsexperienceandpolicy  positions.However,herappearance,marriage,andstatusasaformerFirstLadyreceived  emphasisaswell.Clintonalsobenefittedfromnegativereactiontoheropponentsoverly p aggressivebehaviorduringa_debate(Harpaz2001)._Ԁ \ AppearingtoattackawomanmaynothavehelpedRickLaziowithNewYorkvoters.Butany 4 femalepresidentialcandidateshouldprobablyexpectnegative attackadsandvigorous   challenges,bothfromhermajoropponentandfromnonpartygroupsliketheSwiftBoat p  Veteranswhosucceededin2004inquestioningJohnKerrysrecordasawarhero.Women \ candidatessuchasClintonhavemadesuccessfuluseofnegativeadvertisingthemselves. H _Bystrom_Ԁetal.s(2004)analysisofvideostylesusedinSenatorialorgubernatorialracesbetween 4  1992and2002foundthatwinningfemalecandidatesweremorelikelythanwinningmale  ! candidatestouseissueattacksornegativeadvertising.Democraticwomentendedtoemphasize  " beingaggressiveorafighter,whileRepublicanwomenstressedtheirleadershipandtoughness. " Twopossiblefemalepresidentialcandidateshavebeenbusyestablishingtheir st_reet_Ԁ_creds_in $l! toughness.Dianne_Feinstein_ԀcampaignedforgovernorandsenatorfromCaliforniaasa %X" supporterofthedeathpenalty(aviewsharedbyamajorityofAmericansandALLmajorparty &D # candidatesforthePresidency).ShewasphotographedsittinginSanQuentinsdeathchamber '0!$ duringher1992gubernatorialcampaign.Hercampaignadsusedthetagline tough,butcaring ("% tomarketbothherdeathpenaltypositionandhersupportforwelfare,health,education,and l)#& reproductivechoice.HillaryRodhamClintonisalsoonrecordasfavoringthedeathpenalty,and X*#' theformerantiwarprotestorisnowanactivememberoftheSenateArmedServicesCommittee. D+$( Herofficesaysshehas votedforeverydefenseappropriationsbillsincesheenteredtheSenate 0,%) (Hernandez(2004).Hernandezalsoquotesa closeClintonadvisorwhosaidClintons -&* ;Oa  ; ;  decisiontotacklemilitaryaffairs defiedpoliticallabelingandwas verymuchinkeepingwith d themethodologicalwayshehasgoneaboutmoldinganewpublicimageasshepursuesa P politicalcareerofherown:shoringupareasofvulnerabilityorweaknessinherresume...The < onetimeantiwarprotesternowvotesfornewweaponssystems.Clintonalsoreceivedanaward (  in2005fromtheusuallyconservativeAmericanLegionforhereffortsonbehalfofveterans.   Clearlythereissomeroomfornuanceinthesepositions._Feinstein_ԀandClintonbothsupportthe   movementtodeclareamoratoriumonexecutionspendingreviewofhowthedeathpenaltyhas  t beenassessedandadministered.AndClintonhasstressedhigherpayforsoldiers,keeping  ` militarybasesopen,andbetterfundingforveteransandemergencyservicespersonnel! L  positionsatoddswithcurrentBushAdministrationbudgetpolicies.PotentialDemocratic 8  womenpresidentialcandidatesneednotbecomeconservativeRepublicans,buttheymay $  perceivetheneedtopositionthemselvesinthecenterofDemocraticPartyratherthaninits t  progressive,liberal,orfeministwing.PotentialRepublicanfemalecandidates,however,maybe `  betterabletocapitalizeon toughnessbyappealingtotheirpartysrightwing._Condoleeza_ԀRice L  isapossibleexample,althoughsinceshehasneverheldelectiveofficeshemightfindtheroute 8  tothepresidentialnominationdifficulttonavigate,andmaywellfacetoughquestions $ concerningherroleasnationalsecurityadviserinplanningandconductingthewarinIraq.    Butas_Clift_Ԁand_Brazaitis_Ԁ(2003:xi)warnus, womenfrequentlygotoofarinprovingtheir  toughness.Seekingcredibility,theycatertomensissuesdefenseandtheeconomy p sometimesattheexpenseoflosingtouchwiththeirnaturalconstituencyofwomen.Thusthe \ mediawerecriticalofJean_Carnahan_Ԁbeingphotographedshootingskeetduringher(failed)bid H forreelectiontotheSenatefromMissouriin2002,eventhoughshewasbyallaccountsan 4 accomplished_markswoman_Ԁlongbeforesheenteredpolitics.Womenmayalsofacecompetition   frommalecandidateswhomakeeffectiveuseoftraditionalfemaleissueswithvoterappeal,such p  aseducation,healthcare,orfamilyvalues.Thus_Brystrom_Ԁetal.(2004:51)foundthatmoremale \ thanfemalecandidatesusedtelevisionadsdepictingtheirownchildren.Giventheimportanceof H the strongleaderperceptionasapredictorofpeoplesvotes,however,womencandidatesmay 4  finditnecessarytooveremphasisthistraitattheexpenseofotherqualities.  ! Astronglyantiwar,antimilitary,orpacifistposition,whateveritsintellectualorethical " justification,isunlikelytobepoliticallyviableintheU.S.today.TheonlymemberofCongress #  tovoteagainsttheSept.15,2001resolutionauthorizingPresidentBushtouse allnecessaryand $l! appropriateforceagainstterrorismwasanAfricanAmericanwoman,CaliforniasBarbaraLee %X" (D.CA)(Lee2001).Inthenationalhysteriaafter9/11,thiswassuchaunpopularpolitical &D # positionthatsherequiredroundtheclocksecurityprotection(Hogan2001).Shewasvilifiedby '0!$ therightwingmediaasa traitorandan antiAmericanCommunist(Horowitz2001), ("% althoughherliberalBerkeleydistricthasremained_supportive.5_ԀLikewise,thefirstAmerican l)#& womanelectedtoCongress,JeannetteRankin(R.MT),whovotedagainstbothworldwars, X*#' facedconcertedpopularandmediaopposition(_Witt_Ԁetal.1995).Nomajorpartypresidential D+$( candidate,maleorfemale,islikelytorisktakingsuchapublicstance.Andthelastfew 0,%) supplementalappropriationstofundthewarinIraqhavepassedCongressalmostunanimously, -&* afterlittledebate. d Butcampaignsagainstatoohighdefensebudget,asBillClintondidin1992,orunnecessaryand < illplannedwars,asJohnKerrydidin2004,maystillbepositionssizeablenumbersofvoters (  willsupport.AsthewarinIraqbecomesincreasinglyunpopular,candidatesin2006or2008   maynotneedtopresentaspecificplantoendthewarorbringthetroopshome;theymaysimply   criticizetheBushadministrationsleadershiporhandlingofthewar,whichnowhasonly35   percentsupportfromthepublic(PewResearchCenterpollcitedin_OToole_Ԁ2005).  t _ V.Thepoliticalagenda,terrorism,andopportunitiesforwomen  L  Thepoliticalagendainanygivenelectionwillaffect,notonlywhetherwomenchoosetorun,but $  theircampaignstrategiesandtheirchancesforsuccess.Politicalpartiesaremorelikelytorecruit t  womenwhentheissueenvironmentisperceivedasmorefavorable(BiersackandHerrnson `  1994).Toacertainextent,theagendaoftopicsimportanttovotersandtothecountryinany L  givenelectionyearissetbyeventsoutsideofthecontrolofcontendersforthepresidency: 8  internationalcrises,actionsbyOPEC,actsofterrorism.However,leadingcandidates $ (particularlyanincumbentpresidentorvicepresident)willdoubtlesstrytodefinetheagendato  theirownadvantage.Laggingcandidatesareespeciallylikelytotrytoshifttheagendainorderto  improvetheirchancesofwinning(Shepsle2004).  SizeablenumbersofwomenranforCongressin1990,buttheirsuccessratewasnotveryhigh. \ In1990,thebigissuewastheimpendingGulfWar,andtheelectoratedidnotperceivewomenas H capabledecisionmakersinareasofforeignanddefensepolicy.Butin1992thenationalagenda 4 shiftedtodomesticsocialandeconomicissues:thestagnanteconomy,healthcare,education,   sexualharassmentaftertheAnitaHill/ClarenceThomashearings.Womenwerewidely p  perceivedasmorecapableontheseissues.Arecordnumberofwomenranforoffice,andinthat \  YearoftheWoman,significantnumberswereelectedtoCongressandstatelegislatures(Cook, H Thomas,andWilcox1994). 4  Since9/11,however,terrorismandthewarsinAfghanistanandIraqhavedominatedthenews.  " Throughoutthe2004Presidentialcampaign,thewarinIraqconsistentlytoppedtheGallupPoll " asthemostimportantissuefacingthenation.The waronterrorismmayhavecastalong #  shadowoverAmericanpolitics,butthroughout2004 terrorismhasonlybeenlistedasthe $l!  mostimportantnationalproblemby1013percentofGallupsrespondents(Jones2004).Many %X" domesticissuesarestillsalient:highgasprices,education,healthcare,andthelingering &D # recession.Aspoliticiansarewellaware,however,anysignificantnewattackonAmericansoil '0!$ couldeasilymoveterrorismtothetopoftheagenda. ("% Therefore,anyviablecandidateforpresidentfortheforeseeablefuturemustoffercredibilitywith X*#' respecttocombatingterrorism.Buthowshouldterrorismbedealtwith?Bymid2004,theBush D+$( administrationseffortshadcomeintoseriousquestion,whenforthefirsttimemoreAmericans 0,%) disapprovedthanapprovedofhisroleinhandlingterrorism(NagourneyandElder2004).The -&* ongoingviolenceinIraq,thefailuretocaptureOsamaBinLaden,andtheAbuGhraibprisoner d abusescandalallcontributedtocriticismbythemedia,theDemocrats,andevenmany P Republicans.Andthereportofthe9/11Commissionalsoraisedseriousquestionsabout < domesticpoliciestocombatterrorism.However,theRepublicansmadegooduseofimagesof (  9/11intheir2004campaign;votersconsistentlyperceivedBushasbetterablethanJohnKerryto   dealwiththatissue.GreenbergandCarville(2004)foundthatconcernwithterrorismincreased   duringthelastdaysofthecampaignandhelpedmovemanywaveringvotersintotheBushcamp.      `     h   HistoriansoftheColdWar(MitterandMajor2004;Robin2001)havedocumentedeffortsby  ` powerfulgroupsinAmericansocietytodemonize(orcreate)anenemy(Communism,the Evil L  Empire)andtokeeptheU.S.onapermanentwartimefooting.Suchanenvironmentwould 8  maximizethedefensebudgetandprovidebettercareeroptionsforthoseinthemilitary.Itwould $  alsoreducepoliticalsupportandthefederalbudgetfordomesticspendingprioritiessuchasthe t  environmentorsocialpolicy.Largerbudgetsfordomesticpoliciessuchaseducationor `  interstatehighwayconstructionpassedCongresslargelybecauseoftheirlinktonationaldefense L  (theNationalDefenseHighwaysActof1954,federalspendingonscienceeducationafter 8  Sputnikwaslaunchedin1957). $ Asimilarstrategymaybeapparentinthe waronterrorafter9/11.Allegationsofweaponsof  massdestructionandSaddamHusseinstiestoOsamaBinLadenwereusedtojustifywaging  waragainstIraq,despiteanycredibleevidenceofeither.AsKrugman(2004)claims,Attorney p GeneralJohnAshcroftonseveraloccasionstimedannouncementsof imminentthreatsof \ terrorismtocounterpublicormediaattentiontopotentiallyembarrassingissuesfortheBush H administration(reportsofthe9/11Commission,CongressionalhearingsonFBIsecuritylapses). 4 Suchastrategyprivileges toughnessasadesiredattributeofleaders,whosespeechesand   images(inparticular,PresidentBushscarefullycraftedlandingonanaircraftcarrierinaflight p  suit)aredesignedtoreassureananxiouspublic.Butatadeeperlevel,keepingtheeventsof9/11 \ andconcernsaboutterrorisminthenewsmayheightenvotersfears,andthusencouragethemto H supporttoughtalkingpoliticalleaderswhoofferthemasenseofsecurity(Solomonetal.2004). 4  Landauetal.(2004)provideevidencefromexperimentsthatemphasisonthesalienceof9/11or  ! ofdeathinfluencedsubjectstohavemorepositiveevaluationsofPresidentBush.  " Atleastintheshortrun,thepresidentcancertainlyinfluencetheagendaofCongress,themedia, #  andthepublic(Cohen1995).Butthepresidentdoesnotcontrolevents,particularlythoseof $l! othercountries.Nordoeshecontrolthemedia.IfthewaronIraq(oronterrorism)isnot %X" perceivedtobegoingwell,publicspacewillopenforotheragendas,otherissues,andother &D # candidates.Suchanopeningmaywellprovideopportunitiesforwomencandidatestomoveinto '0!$ thecircleofeligibilityforthePresidency.Buttheymustfirstlaythepoliticalgroundworkin ("% otherelectiveofficeinordertobeperceivedas electablebythemedia,partyleaders,and l)#& voters. X*#'  VI.The WarriorimageandthePresidency  0,%)    `     -&* Kaplan(2002)arguesthatthewarsofthefuturewillnotbecharacterizedbyadherenceto d internationallaw,consultationwithCongressorthepublic,orciviliansupremacyoverthe P military.Rather,hearguesthatthe warriorswenowface(terrorists,extremenationalists,drug < kingpins,warlords)havemadesudden,secretwarsandassassinationsmorelikely,andwill (  requireafusionofcivilianandmilitarydecisionmaking.Henotesthatthebudgetsofthe   DefenseDepartmentandthearmedserviceshavegrownevenasfundingfortheState   Departmentandforeignaidhasshrunk.Insuchanenvironment,presumably,ademocraticleader   mustoperateasa warrioraswell,unconstrainedbysuchnicetiesashumanrightsandthe_rule  t oflaw.AsKaplan(2002:114)concludes, _statesMANship_Ԁdemandsamoralityof  ` consequences.A_statesMAN_Ԁmustbeabletothinktheunthinkable(myemphasis). L  Manymaleelectedofficials,andpresumablyevenmorewomen,wouldfindsucharole $  uncomfortable_(nottosayillegalaswell)._ԀHowever,accordingtopollstheAmericanpublicis t  lessconcernedaboutthenicetiesofcivillibertiesthanwithcombatingterrorismbyanymeans `  necessary.AnABC/WashingtonPostpollfoundthat46percentwouldpermitphysicalabuse L  shortoftorture,and35percentthoughttorturecouldbeacceptableinatleastsomecases(cited 8  in_Ignatieff_Ԁ_2004),anda2005GallupPollreportedthattwothirdsofAmericanswerewillingto $ assassinateknownterrorists(Carolson2005)._ԀAfemale(ormale)candidateforPresidentwho  pledgedtoupholdGenevaConventionprohibitionsagainsttorturewouldpresumablybe  perceivedasweakorawimpbyvoterswiththeseviews.  Icertainlydonotwishto_essentialize_Ԁgenderrolesandsuggestthatwomenareincapableof \ actingaswarriors.Goldsteins(2001)researchongenderandwaruncoverednumerous H exceptionstothemalewarriormyth,andalsoshowedthatmenarebynomeansnaturalkillers: 4 theymustbeindoctrinatedorshamedintobehavingas_warriors.6_ԀTheexamplesofMargaret   ThatcherduringtheFalklands/_Malvinas_Ԁwar,theRwandanorSerbianwomeninvolvedinthe p  ethnicgenocideinthosecountries,orwomeninrevolutionaryCubaorVietNam,certainlyshow \ thatwomencanassumesuchroles.TheroutestopublicofficefollowedbymostAmerican H womenindicatethatrecruitmentortraininginwarriorrolesareunlikely,butwomencandidates 4  andofficeholdersmaystillfindopportunitiestofostertheirimagesas toughdecisionmakers  ! whocanhandlecrisesandadversity.  " However,iftheBushadministrationsunilateralmilitaristic warriorapproachtofighting #  terrorismfailstowork,theopportunityfordiscussionofalternativeapproachesmaybenefit__ $l! womencandidates.IfwomenlackcredibilityasapotentialCommanderinChief,theymayfare %X" betterwithpoliticalelites,themedia,andvotersifthepolicyfocusshiftstos_ome_Ԁofareas &D # stressedby_Weeden_Ԁ(2004)inhisbookHowWomenCanBeatTerrorism:alleviatingpoverty, '0!$ improvingeducationforwomenandgirls,controllingweaponsofmassdestruction,improving ("% publichealth,limitingpopulationgrowth,collaborationwiththeU.N.andwithothercountries. l)#& Butaslongasthenationalagendacontinuestobefocusedonwarandterrorism,fewerwomen X*#' mayperceivearoleforthemselvesandtheirconcernsinthepoliticalarena,andmaydeclineto D+$( runfornationaloffice.Thenationalagendawillundoubtablymoveontootherissuesasithasis 0,%) thepast.Buteveniftheagendadoesshifttoissuessuchashealth,educationandtheeconomy, -&* wherefemalecandidatesmightbeperceivedascompetenttolead,wemayseefewerwomenin d the poolofeligibilitywithsufficienthighlevelpoliticalexperiencetobeconsideredasserious P candidatesforPresidentbypartyleadersorcontributorsorbyvoters. <  Conclusion:_options_Ԁforwomenseekingthepresidency  p    _AsIhaveshown,increasingpercentagesofAmericanssaytheywouldsupporta qualified   womanforpresident.ExaminationofANESdataoncandidatetraitsfoundthatperceptionsof  t candidatescompassionandstrongleadershipwereBOTHgoodpredictorsofhowAmericans  ` vote,buttheperceptionthatacandidate caresaboutpeoplelikeyouprovedtobeevenmore L  importantafter911/thanbeforeit.Womenaremorelikelythanmentosupportawomanfor 8  president,andhavesignificantlymorefavorableviewsofHillaryClintonthanmendo(Jones $  2005).Also,asAtkeson(2003)andHansen(1997)haveshown,thepresenceofwomenonthe t  ballotstimulatescampaigninterestandparticipationbywomen,whonowconstitute53percent `  ofvoters.Thesesurveyresultssuggestthatawomancandidateschancesofbeingelected L  Presidenthaveimproved. 8  So_Ԁwhatsomepossibleelectoralstrategiesfor_women?_______ԀFirstofall,priorhighlevelelectoral  experience(governororsenator)isprobablyascrucialforthemasitisformalecandidates_for  president._ԀGroupssuchasEmilysListandtheWhiteHouseProject_(Wilson2004)are_Ԁproviding  funds_andencouragementtowomencurrentlyinCongressorstatelegislaturestoboosttheminto p higherleveloffices.Still,itmaybenecessarytogainsuchexperienceatayoungerage,aserious \ issueforwomenpoliticianswhotendtobegintheirpubliccareerslaterinlifethanmendo.7 H Second, frontloadingofpresidentialprimaries(movingdatesearlierandearlierinelection   years)putsevenmoreemphasisonpreprimaryactivities,especiallyfundraising(Polsbyand p  Wildavsky2004).Sotheabilitytoattracthugelevelsofcontributionsearlyisincreasingly \ valuable;lackoffundswasthemajorreasonElizabethDolegaveforwithdrawingfromthe H Republicanprimaryraceinlate1999.HillaryClintonisreputedtobetheDemocraticPartystop 4  fundraiser,whichcouldgreatlyhelphercandidacyin2008.However,asnotedearlier,gender  ! stereotypesaremorelikelytobesalientinprimaries,probablytothedetrimentoffemale  " candidates. " AnalternativeroutetothePresidencymightprovideawayaroundtheelectoralandinstitutional $l! obstaclesIhaveidentified.Manyrecentvicepresidents(Nixon,Johnson,Humphrey,Ford, %X" Mondale,Bush,Gore)havebeennominatedforpresident.Notallhavewon;asPolsbyand &D # Wildavsky(2004)note,avicepresidentmaybeblamedforanyshortcomingsoftheprevious '0!$ administrationbutmaybeunabletoclaimcreditforitsaccomplishments.Butacandidates ("% choiceofvicepresidentmayelevatesomeone(likeGeraldineFerraroin1984)witharespectable l)#& levelofpoliticalexperiencewhomaynotyethavereachedthepoolofeligibilityforpresident X*#' andwhomightnothavebeenacontenderintheprimaryorpreprimaryphase.Andifthe(male) D+$( presidentialcandidateisperceivedassufficiently toughonnationalsecurityandterrorism(a 0,%) warhero,perhaps?),thefemalevicepresidentialcandidatemaybeabletoemphasizeother -&* aspectsofthepoliticalagenda.Servingfirstasvicepresidentmaygiveawomantheexperience d andcredibilitytoeventuallyrunforpresidentonherown.Andthedeathordisabilityofamale P presidentcouldhastentheprocess.Perhapslifewillimitateart;theFall2005televisiondrama < CommanderinChiefusedexactlythatplottointroduceawomanasPresident. (  Wouldthefirstwomanpresidentprovidemuchofaboostforfeministpriorities?Ibelievethisis   unlikely.AsDovi(2002)argues,notjust anywomenwillrepresentwomensinterests;only   thosewithwelldevelopedtiestofeministorganizationsarelikelytomovefromdescriptiveto  t substantivereprensentationofwomen.ButDelanoandWinters(1999)foundthatfemale  ` gubernatorialcandidateshurttheirowngeneralelectionchancesbyrunningeithertoofarleft L  (stressingprogressiveorfeministvalues)orright(prolifeChristianconservatives)during 8  primaries.Somovingtothecentermayprovetobethewinningstrategyforthefirstwoman $  president.Intheaftermathofthe2004electionlosses,theDemocraticpartyisconsidering t  temperingitsstancesonseveralissues,includinggaymarriageandabortion(Rosenberg2004), `  althoughanysuchmoveswillcertainlyalienatemanyofthepartyscoresupporters.Regardless L  ofherpolicyviews,amajorpartynominationorsuccessfulvicepresidentialcandidacybya 8  womanshouldhelpreducetheremainingpoliticalandpopularobjectionstoelectingawoman $ president,andthatinitselfwouldbeasignificantsteptowardredefiningthegenderednatureof  politicalleadership.  Recentpresidentsofbothpartieshavemadeincreasinguseofexecutiveorderstocarryouttheir p policyprioritieswithouthavingtodealwithCongress(Cooper2002).Soawomanpresident \ mightbeabletosupportsomegainsforwomenevenifovertcampaigningonsuchissuesis H problematicforelectoralsuccess.Studiesoftheimpactofwomeninpublicofficehavefounda 4 widegapbetweenextantregressivepublicattitudesaboutwomenasofficeholdersandthe   abilityofthesewomentogetintoofficeand,oncesituated,tomaketheirpresencefeltonbehalf p  ofwomensissues(Carroll2001).Wealsoneedtolookbeyondthefirstwomanpresident.The \ secondfemaleSupremeCourtjustice(RuthBaderGinsburg)wasfarmorefeministinorientation H thanSandraDayOConnor,andperhapsthesecondorthirdfemalepresidentwillbeinamuch 4  betterpositiontoarticulatefeministconcerns,toshifttheagendaawayfromviolenceand  ! militarism,andtoconfrontgenderinequitiesbothathomeandabroad.  " Ultimately,however,votersdonotvoteforahypothetical wellqualifiedwoman(orCatholic #  orJeworAfricanAmerican),butforarealfleshandbloodcandidatewithamixtureof $l! perceivedstrengthsandweaknessesinaparticularhistoriccontext.Votersandpartyleaders %X" (andfeministsaswell)maynotseetheir idealwomancandidatesucceedingainingthe &D # nominationorwinningtheelection.Butthe idealmalecandidateprobablydoesnotexisteither '0!$ Єorifhedoes,maynotbewillingtorunthegauntletthatconstitutesacontemporarypresidential ("% campaign.Allofushavetodecideineveryelectionwhethertovoteforthelesseroftwoevils, l)#& supportathirdpartycandidate,orabstainaltogetherfromaflawedprocess. X*#' Thepoolofeligiblewomenelectedofficialscontinuestoexpand,andthenationaland 0,%) internationalagendaisconstantlyshifting.The waronterrormaycauseconsiderableshort -&* termdifficultiesforwomenaspotentialpresidentialcandidates.Butifthe warascurrently d wagedisperceivedasfailingtoprovideeitherpeaceorsecurity,alternativemodelsofleadership P mayprovidewomenwithelectoraladvantagesratherthandisadvantagesastheyseekthe < presidency. (   Notes    1.SinceVictoriaWoodhullfirstdeclaredhercandidacyforthePresidencyin1872,several  t womenhavecampaignedforthenomination:SenatorMargaretChaseSmithofMainein1960,  ` andDemocratsRep.ShirleyChisholm(D.NY)in1972,Rep.PatSchroeder(D.CO)in1988, L  andElizabethDolein2000. 8  2.InglehartandNorris(2003:143)reportasizeablegendergapinattitudestowardwomenas t  politicalleaders.Opinionsofmalerespondentsinthe74countriestheysurveyedvarylittleby `  agecohort,butyoungerwomenshowadramaticincreaseinsupportforwomenaspolitical L  leaders. 8    3.SeeHerbst(1993)fordiscussionoftheinfluenceofpollingquestionsandmethodson  Americanpolitics._TheFoxNewspollisdescribedin4=es2O  5  www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm.6 2O the  7esp ԀFifty  ninepercentofthosetheypolledjudgedClintonas qualifiedtobePresident.  4.Additionalregressionsfoundthatnoneoftheothertraitshadasignificantindependentimpact \ onvotechoice. H  5.Rep.BarbaraLeewasreelectedin2004with84percentofthevote,andwasalso   unanimouslyreelectedWhipoftheCongressionalBlackCaucus.  p     `     h      p   6.SeePrugl(2003)foraninsightfulcritiqueofGoldsteinsanalysis.Whilesheapplaudshis H empiricalreserchonindividuallevelgenderdifferences,shefaultshimfordownplayingthe 4  genderedsocialandpoliticalstructuresthatperpetuatemilitarismandviolence.  !  7.DianneFeinsteinandNancyPelosi,despitetheirnotablecareersinCongress,are64and66 " respectively,almostcertainlytoooldforseriousconsiderationin2008orthereafter.Another #  promisingwomangovernor,MichigansJenniferGranholm,isineligiblebecauseshewasbornin $l! Canada. %X"  References  ("% 0   Alexander,Deborah,andKristiAndersen.1993. Genderasafactorintheattributionof X*#' leadershiptraits.PoliticalResearchQuarterly46:52745.D+$((#(# 0   Andersen,Kristi.1996.AfterSuffrage:WomeninPartisanandElectoralPoliticsbeforethe 0,%) NewDeal.Chicago:UniversityofChicagoPress.-&*(#(# 0   Atkeson,LonnaRae.2003. 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Thegapincreases:Tostayorleave?PittsburghPostGazette,Aug.21, l& # A1,8.X' $(#(# 0   Polsby,NelsonW.,andAaronWildavsky.2004.PresidentialElections,11thed.NewYork: D(!% FreePress.0)"&(#(# 0   Prugl,Elisabeth.2003. Genderandwar:causes,constructions,andcritique.Perspectiveson *#' Politics1:335343.+$((#(# 0   Robin,Ron.2001.TheMakingoftheColdWar:CultureandPoliticsintheMilitaryIntellectual +%)  Complex.Princeton,NJ:PrincetonUniversityPress.,|&*(#(# 0   Rosenberg,Deborah.2004. Anxietyoverabortion:Pro-choiceDemocratseyeamorerestrictive d  approachtoabortionasonewaytogaingroundatthepolls.Newsweek,Dec.20.(#(#K(#(#(# P 0   Schepsle,KennethA.2003. Losersinpolitics(andhowtheysometimesbecomewinners): < WilliamRikersheresthetic.PerspectivesonPolitics1:307317.( (#(# Solomon,Sheldon,TomPyszczynski,andJeffGreenberg.2004. Thepoliticsofmortality.     Personality&SocialPsychologyBulletin30:227248.   Weeden,Curt.2003.HowWomenCanBeatTerrorism.Mt.Pleasant,NC:QuadrafoilPress.   0   Whicker,MarciaLynn,andHedyIsaacs.1999. ThemalenessoftheAmericanpresidency,pp.  t 221232inLoisDukeWhitaker,ed.,WomeninPolitics:OutsidersorInsiders?3rded.  ` SaddleRiver,NJ:PrenticeHallL (#(# Wilson,MarieC.2004.ClosingtheLeadershipGap:HowWomenCanandMustHelpRunthe 8  0     World.NewYork:VikingPenguin$ (#(# 0   Witt,Linda,KarenM.Paget,andGlennaMatthews.1995.RunningasaWoman:Genderand t  PowerinAmericanPolitics.NewYork:TheFreePress.` (#(#  TheWorldsWomen2000:TrendsandStatistics.NewYork:UnitedNations. L  Young,Lisa.2003.FeministsandPartyPolitics.AnnArbor:UniversityofMichiganPress. 8  Zernike,Kate,andJohnM.Broder.2004. War?Jobs?No,charactercountedmosttovoters. $   NewYorkTimes,Nov.4,A1,4.      `     `    Figure1. (  <( 4 <DLX<&; %XX(,&% %&;+-VFBx \| p.3%@XE | |  *#&; %%,&J##X(X %&;J#      `    Source:JonesandMoore2003     -*' Ї<(  <DLX<?X%XXX(?wwX?X%#?X%Xw?wL#?wwX?X%#www?w蓾L##X(XwwM#    ` Table1.SupportforElectingaWomanasPresident  d TheGallupPollquestion: Ifyourpartynominatedawomanforpresident,wouldyouvote < forherifshewerequalifiedforthejob? (   Percentsayingyes:  19870 h 2003  h(#h(# All0  0` (#(#0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#80%0h(#(#0h(#h(#87% x(#(# Southerners0 ` 0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#74P (#(# Overage500 ` 0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#750h(#(#0h(#h(#81< (#(# Lessthanhighschool0 0 (# (#76( (#(# Highschoolgraduate0 0 (# (#77x (#(# Incomeunder$25,0000  78d (#(# Republicans0 ` 0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#78P (#(# Hispanics0 ` 0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#78< (#(# Protestants `    80 ( Males0  0` (#(#0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#810h(#(#0h(#h(#85(#(# Whites0  0` (#(#0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#81(#(# Independents0 ` 0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#820h(#(#0h(#h(#0(#(#(#(# Females0  0` (#(#0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#830h(#(#0h(#h(#89t(#(# Catholics0 ` 0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#84`(#(# Democrats0 ` 0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#85L(#(# Age18500 ` 0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#860h(#(#0h(#h(#888(#(# Somecollege0 ` 0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#86$(#(# Blacks0  0` (#(#0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#86t(#(# Incomeover$25,0000 0 (# (#87`(#(# Westerners0 ` 0 ` (#` (#0 (# (#89L(#(# Collegegraduates0 0 (# (#938 (#(# Source:GallupPollReport1987;JonesandMoore2003.  "    `     ` Table2.CandidateImageBySex , 2000and2004  <     `     h 0  0(#(#%WhoAgree  (#(#  2000survey : `     h 0  All0(#(#Male0(#(#Female  (#(#  򀀀     ЀGoreisa strongleader0   h   580(#(#0p(#(#530p(#p(#0 (#(#61* | (# (# ЀBushisa strongleader0  0h(#(#0h(#h(#670(#(#0p(#(#660p(#p(#0 (#(#66 x  @x  @x  @x  @x  @x  @x  @x  @x  @x  @x  h (# (# ЀGore caresaboutpeoplelikeyou0 h 0h(#h(#590(#(# p 510(#(#0 (#(#63*T  (# (# ЀBush caresaboutpeoplelikeyou0 h 0h(#h(#460(#(#0p(#(#470p(#p(#0 (#(#45 x @  (# (# ЀGoreis moral0 0 (# (#0h(#(#0h(#h(#74   p 690(#(#0 (#(#79*,  (# (# ЀBushis moral0 0 (# (#0h(#(#0h(#h(#730(#(#0p(#(#730p(#p(#0 (#(#83*|  (# (# ЀGoreis knowledgeable0  0h(#(#  78  0ph(#h(#840p(#p(#0 (#(#84h  (# (# ЀBushis knowledgeable0  0h(#(#  700h(#h(# p 680(#(#0 (#(#72T  (# (# ЀGoreis intelligent0 0 (# (#0h(#(#0h(#h(#860(#(#0p(#(#870p(#p(#0 (#(#85@  (# (# ЀBushis intelligent0 0 (# (#0h(#(#0h(#h(#760(#(#0p(#(#740p(#p(#0 (#(#76, (# (# ЀGoreis dishonest0 0 (# (#0h(#(#0h(#h(#270(#(#0p(#(#330p(#p(#0 (#(#24* (# (# ЀBushis dishonest0 0 (# (#0h(#(#  230h(#h(#0p(#(#240p(#p(#0 (#(#20  (# (# ЀGoreis outoftouch0  0h(#(#0h(#h(#37   p 400(#(#0 (#(#35 (# (# ЀBushis outoftouch0  0h(#(#0h(#h(#420(#(#0p(#(#430p(#p(#0 (#(#41x (# (#  2004survey:  `     h     󀀀  P  ̀Kerryisa strongleader0  0h(#(#  520h(#h(#0p(#(#470p(#p(#0 (#(#55*, (# (# ЀBushisa strongleader0  0h(#(#  650h(#h(#0p(#(#690p(#p(#0 (#(#61*0x (# (# @!  @!  @!  @!  @!  @!  @!  @!  @!  @!  @! |x(#x(# ЀKerry caresaboutpeoplelikeyou0  57  0p(#(#440p(#p(#0 (#(#59*h (# (# ЀBush caresaboutpeoplelikeyou0 h 0h(#h(#460(#(#460(#(#0 (#(#47T (# (# ЀKerryis moral0 0 (# (#0h(#(#0h(#h(#680(#(#0p(#(#640p(#p(#0 (#(#73*@  (# (# ЀBushis moral0 0 (# (#0h(#(#  690h(#h(#0p(#(#690p(#p(#0 (#(#69,! (# (# ЀKerryis knowledgeable0  0h(#(#  800h(#h(#0p(#(#800p(#p(#0 (#(#790x (# (#0@xx(#x(#0@xx(#x(#0@xx(#x(#"x(#x(# ЀBushis knowledgeable0  0h(#(#  59  0ph(#h(#580p(#p(#0 (#(#600x (# (# @ #x(#x(# ЀKerryis intelligent0  0h(#(#0h(#h(#850(#(#0p(#(#850p(#p(#0 (#(#84#  (# (# ЀBushis intelligent0  0h(#(#0h(#h(#610(#(#0p(#(#600p(#p(#0 (#(#62$x! (# (# ЀKerryis dishonest0  0h(#(#0h(#h(#250(#(#0p(#(#250p(#p(#0 (#(#25%d" (# (# ЀBushis dishonest0 0 (# (#0h(#(#  320h(#h(#0p(#(#330p(#p(#0 (#(#310x (# (#0@x(#x(#&P #x(#x(# ЀKerry cantmakeuphismind0 h 0h(#h(#47   p 490(#(#0 (#(#46'