Department of Philosophy
Research School of Social Sciences
Australian National University
California Institute of Technology
The Philosophical Foundations of Probability
No single thing stands out for me this year, but I've been keeping busy - see my Homepage. I guess my main project at the moment is finishing this book manuscript:
Arrows and Haloes: Probabilities, Conditionals, Desires, Beliefs to be published by Oxford University Press.
o "Complex Expectations" (with Harris Nover), forthcoming in Mind, 2008.
o "Are Miracles Chimerical?", in Oxford Studies in Philosophy of Religion, ed. Jon Kvanvig, Oxford University Press, forthcoming 2008.
o "Dutch Book Arguments", in The Oxford Handbook of Corporate Social Responsibility. ed. Paul Anand, Prasanta Pattanaik, and Clemens Puppe, forthcoming 2008.
o "Conditional Probability", in Philosophy of Statistics, eds. Prasanta Bandhopadhyay and Malcolm Forster, Elsevier, forthcoming.
o "Probability - A Philosophical Overview", forthcoming in Current Issues in the Philosophy of Mathematics From the Perspective of Mathematicians, ed. Bonnie Gold, Mathematical Association of America, 2008.
o "Arguments For - Or Against - Probabilism?", forthcoming in Degrees of Belief, eds. Franz Huber and Christoph Schmidt-Petri, Oxford University Press, 2008.
o "Confirmation" (with James M. Joyce), in the Routledge Companion to the Philosophy of Science, eds. Stathis Psillos and Martin Curd, forthcoming 2008.
o "Bayesian Epistemology" (with Stephan Hartmann), forthcoming in the Blackwell Companion to Epistemology, ed. Matthias Steup, 2008.
o "A Philosopher's Guide to Probability", forthcoming in Uncertainty and Risk: Multi-disciplinary Perspectives, Earthscan (the Goolabri symposium organized by Gabriele Bammer and Michael Smithson), 2008.
o "David Lewis", The New Dictionary of Scientific Biography, Scribners.
o "Pascal's Wager", invited contribution to The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta,
(Substantive revision of original 1998 article.)
special lectures or presentations
o Keynote address, First Synthese Conference, Copenhagen, "Lewis Meets Hegel: A Tribute to David Lewis, and Two Dialectics on Formal Methods"
o Keynote address, Modality and Science conference, University of Colorado at Boulder : "A Puzzle About Partial Belief"
o Workshop on my work on philosophical methodology, Soochow University, Taipei
I gave seven lectures on philosophical heuristics.
grants, fellowships or awards; present research interests
I"m finishing a manuscript for a book entitled: Arrows and Haloes: Probabilities, Conditionals, Desires and Beliefs, forthcoming with Oxford University Press.
Vincent Hendricks and I are editing a collection: Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions, edited by Alan Hájek and Vincent F. Hendricks, New York / London: Automatic Press / VIP, ISBN-10: 87-92130-05-4; ISBN-13: 978-87-92130-05-1. Release Date: September 2008 .
After a period of being Department Chair, last year I gladly returned fully to the life of the mind. Some highlights:
• Two-day conference on my work on conditionals (with commentators on it), Belgrade University
• A Week With Alan Hájek lecture series, Trnava University, Slovakia—7 lectures, one televised in Slovakia.
I finished a number of articles; watch this space for these forthcoming:
• “Making Ado Without Expectations” (with Mark Colyvan), forthcoming in Mind.
• “Creating Heuristics for Philosophical Creativity”, forthcoming in Creativity and Philosophy, eds. Berys Gaut and Matthew Kieran, Oxford University Press.
• “Minkish Dispositions”, forthcoming in Synthese.
• “Philosophical Heuristics and Philosophical Methodology”, forthcoming in The Oxford Handbook of Philosophical Methodology, eds. Herman Cappelin, Tamar Szabó Gendler, and John Hawthorne, Oxford University Press.
• “Deliberation Welcomes Prediction”, forthcoming in Episteme.
• “Hysteresis Hypotheses”, forthcoming in Conditionals, Probability, and Paradox: Themes from the Philosophy of Dorothy Edgington, eds. John Hawthorne and Lee Walters, Oxford University Press.
This edited collection is also forthcoming:
The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy, eds. Alan Hájek and Christopher Hitchcock, Oxford: Oxford University Press.