Tuesday, 11 November 2003
How Causal Probabilities Might Fit Into Our Objectively Indeterministic World
Nuel Belnap, University of Pittsburgh, Philosophy
12:05 pm, 817R Cathedral of Learning

Abstract: We suggest a rigorous theory of how objective single-case transition probabilities fit into our world. The theory combines indeterminism and relativity in the "branching space-times" pattern, and relies on the existing theory of causae causantes (originating causes). Its fundamental suggestion is that (at least in simple cases) the probabilities of all transitions can be computed from the basic probabilities attributed individually to their originating causes. The theory explains when and how one can reasonably infer from the probabilities of one "chance set-up" to the probabilities of another such set-up that is located far away.