Statistics 200
Coincidences 2003

A coincidence is a surprising concurrence of events, perceived as meaningfully related, but with no apparent causal connection. Should we really be surprised by these coincidences? Remember that when so many "unlikely" events are possible, according to the laws of probability, some of them are bound to happen. Like these...

(C.A.) When I turned 18 I decided to play the lottery on one of those scratch-off tickets. On the first ticket I purchased I won $20. I believe this occurrence was unlikely to happen because the odds of winning on one of those tickets are against the players. Also I believe it was not probable because it was my first time ever to play and to win $20 seems highly unlikely.

(M.B.) My friend Janine and I both work at Oakmont Country Club as servers. On Saturday we were setting a table of nine for dinner, I was setting down spoons and she was doing knives. We keep the silverware in a drawer filled with an unknown number of each utensil. I grabbed a handful of spoons and set them down and screamed, "I love it when I have exactly enough to finish the table." (The rest of the silverware is in the kitchen.) Janine 3 minutes later screamed the same thing, she had grabbed the exact number of knives. The probability of this occurring again is extremely unlikely. The number of utensils that were in the drawer, and that she could have grabbed is infinite.

(J.B.) One night I was sitting at home by myself and I was terribly bored. So I decided to finally call this girl that I had a crush on. After dialing the first 5 digits and hanging up about 5 times, I finally completed the call. When she answered the phone I asked if I could speak to Jessica and she said that this was Jessica. After chatting for about 45 minutes we got off the phone. The next day at school my confidence was at an all-time high. I finally got the courage to call her and she really seemed to like me. Later that day, still confident as ever, I decided to make the next step and talk to her in person. When I walked up to her and we started to talk, I could tell something wasn't right. When I would make reference to our conversation last night she had no idea what I was talking about. After talking for a little while, I suddenly realized why. I had not talked to her last night. I talked to another Jessica! I must have dialed the wrong number and somehow it just happened to be another Jessica. Althoug I had no luck with the Jessica I knew, at least the other one liked me. The occurrences were not all that unlikely. There had to be at least 40 Jessicas in my school alone not to mention how many there were in my calling area.

(A.B.) I went to my doctor's one day and when I got there the doctor's office had put me in the wrong doctor's room. When I realized that the doctor was not the one I had an appointment with, I went back up to the front desk. They apologized and said that there were two different Ashley Browns that had appointments that day and they had mistaken me for the other Ashley Brown and therefore took me to the wrong doctor's room. I thought that was a really weird coincidence, not only because the girl went to the same doctor's office as me and had the exact same name, but she also had an appointment on the very same day as me. These occurrences weren't really so unlikely because I have a very plain and common name. It wasn't really that unlikely for us to have an appointment on the very same day because our doctor's office doesn't have that many patients and the appointments were at a time of year when the flu was getting passed around. This occurrence was bound to happen at some time or another.

This isn't definitely a coincidence but it may be worth a shot. Last night while posting flyers for NSP (a non-profit organization) all over campus I happened to lose my wallet. I searched the streets of Oakland and could not find it. So I then called PNC Bank to cancel my check card and it took an extremely long time (15 minutes) on hold before I finally could speak with someone. I deactivated my card and then ten minutes later tried Panther Central again to see if something was turned in since I last checked (right before calling PNC Bank) and it turned out someone had turned in my wallet. Was it just coincidence that I couldn't get through to PNC? Then lo and behold last night I looked in my returned wallet, no check card. I thought I'd really saved myself some stress by deactivating it. Looking in my room last night, I stumbled upon my card (deactivated). Was it coincidence I waited on hold so long?

(K.C.) About a year or so ago I had a boyfriend named Adam. It had been about 3 months since we broke up and stopped communicating when I had a dream about him. In the dream I ran into Adam and his new girlfriend, a very beautiful girl with black hair, at Kennywood. We chatted for a few minutes as they sat in the car of a rollercoaster waiting for it to start the ride. The very next day, after months without talking, Adam instant messaged me. After some trivial conversation, he asked if I'd like to see a picture of his girlfriend. I said that I would, so he sent me a photograph. What was in it? Adam, a very pretty blackhaired girl, and a rollercoaster car. This doesn't seem like a very probable occurrence to me, but I guess I'll learn more about how to determine that in class in the coming days.

(A.E.) For the four years since I've had my driver's license I've never been in a car accident or did any damage to my vehicle. That is, until this past summer. I was on my way out to dinner, driving along and a deer jumps off the bank into my driver's side door. To say the least, I was not pleased. Later on that night I was on my way home and I hit yet another deer on the same side of my car. I was easily convinced that this just wasn't my day. After driving for four years without hitting a deer, I manage to his two in one night. However, random events aren't as random as they seem. Therefore, the occurrence, although unpleasant, probably has a good chance of happening.

(L.F.) My family went on a family vacation this summer to an island off the coast of Maine. While there we went kayaking and after talking to our guide for a while we found out that he grew up in Pittsburgh. My whole family was born and raised in Pittsburgh and we still live just south of the town in the South Hills. He also grew up in the South Hills and we continued talking about how things have changed like the new mall that was built. We found out that he used to either own or manage, I can't remember which, a restaurant that we used to always go to. I think that this occurrence was very unlikely and that there is no causal connection.

(D.G.) My second semester at school I was required to take a lab, but the lab was full except for 7 spots. To be eligible for these seven spots your name had to be on the "waiting list" for the lab, mine was not. As the instructor was calling out names on the waiting list picking the first 7 people that were present in the lab he called out a David G., my name being David Greenlee, I was pretty excited. I told the instructor that it was me and ended up getting into the lab even though my name was not on the waiting list. It was a coincidence that there was another David G. on the list but it was even more of an unlikely coincidence that he did not spell out his full name and just put G. as his last name.

(S.J.) When I was 10 years old, me and my family were driving to Ocean City, Maryland for vacation. Me and my sister were sitting in the backseat reading books or doing something to keep ourselves amused for the 7 hour trip. Out of nowhere, we both started singing, "We're off to see the Wizard..." from the Wizard of Oz. I have no idea why we both sang that song but the occurrence really was that unlikely. Out of all the songs in the world and there would have to be millions, why would that song suddenly pop into both of our heads? To this day, neither of us can figure that out.

(B.K.) My family and I went to Myrtle Beach one summer and we decided to go mini-golfing one night. When we were golfing, we saw family friends at the same mini-golf course. Then the next night, we went mini-golfing again at a different golf course and we saw that same family! (Two different golf courses, two different nights, saw same family friends in Myrtle Beach.) That is very unlikely because there are so many possible weeks you could go to the beach (let alone Myrtle Beach). There are over 20 mini-golfing courses and it was 2 consecutive nights we saw them. Probability = (1/12)(1/52)(1/365)(1/365)=1/133225.

(S.K.) Last year in November, I was in my AP Chemistry class. We were in the lab room. My partner and I were waiting for the solution to be passed to us. My AP chem teacher, Mr. Leuschner, has many fun little things in his room. One of them was a plastic jar full of tiny colorful beads. The jar contained: 10,000,000 blue beads, 1,000,000 yellow beads, 100,000 white beads, 1 black bead. My lab partner took the jar and started to look for that ONE black bead. He turned it over and over searching. While watching him, I thought that it would be funny if I found the black bead in an instant while he couldn't find it after searching and searching. So, I leaned over and suddenly,something caught my eye. I pointed at something and told him, " There's the black bead." His mouth dropped. I really found it as soon as I looked at the jar. What were the chances of that? This actually happened!!

(L.K.) When my aunt Liz and Uncle Rick were on their honeymoon they met a couple with the same last name. They spent many nights going to dinner with the couple, where they talked about each other's family. They learned that they had a son, David Jacobs, who had the same name and age as their nephew. Years passed and their oldest daughter called home from college one day to say that she had met a boy who had the same name as her cousin David. This immediately sparked my aunt's memory and she asked her daughter to find out what his parents' names were. Sure enough his parents were the same ones they had met on their honeymoon.

(L.M.) One day I went to the mall and parked my white Cavalier in front of Kaufmanns. After I went in the mall and did my shopping I was ready to leave. In the parking lot I walked up to my car or so I thought was my car. After I tried to get into it and the door would not open, I started to panic. As it turns out my car was parked a few cars down from the one I was trying to get into. Both cars had University of Pittsburgh stickers in the window. I noticed that the car wasn't mine when I saw it did not have a CD player inside of it. Thankfully nobody thought I was breaking into someone's car. The odds of this happening are probably better than you think. There are thousands of people with Cavaliers who live in the general area that I do.

(M.P.)A personal coincidence story I have experienced was in New York City the summer after my sophomore year in high school. I was taking dance classes for the summer and I decided to go take a class at this really large studio with many different classes. Well I signed up for my class, which was supposed to be advanced jazz, and the classrooms were set up by first initial and last name of instructor. Well my instructor was N. Michaels so I found the door and went in. To my surprise I found a classroom in silence and the instructor began teaching a strange piece of choreography but there was no sound and he didn't talk. So I finished the class and asked at the desk what kind of a jazz class that was. Well it just so happened that the class I took's instructor was named Nadine Michaels and it was a beginning movement class for deaf students and my advanced jazz class was to be taught by Nicole Michaels. I had just gone into the first N. Michaels without thinking there was a chance of two instructors being N. Michaels. The chance of that seemed quite unlikely to me to occur, but it still did and I guess it really isn't all that unlikely.

(M.Q.) When I was in ninth grade, I went on vacation with my best friend, Laura. We were at a house in the Outer Banks and decided to look through the guest book to see who else had stayed in the house. I was looking through the book and came across the name "Morrissey" and said that I was related to Morrissey's. My friend said that she was, too. We looked at the first names of the Morrissey's in the book and they were the people I was related to. But my friend was also related to them. As it turned out, we were both related to the same people and they had even stayed in the beach house we were staying in! This is pretty unlikely, but when you think about it, we all lived in the same area and through marriage, we were related. So it is not that unlikely because of the fact that people become related through marriage all the time.

(C.R.) When I was four years old we had a babysitter who we used on a regular basis for about four years until we moved. We didn't really keep in great contact with her but we would randomly hear things about what she was up to. We knew she went to college to become an accountant and had graduated. But who would ever think that 10 years later in high school, the new math teacher for one of the classes would be my former babysitter. Turns out she didn't like accounting, went back to school to become a math teacher and got a job in my school district as my teacher. The occurrences I guess were strange but not completely out of the ordinary. I mean the college she graduated from wasn't too far from high school, like 30 minutes, but out of all the school districts she got a job at mine, for my grade and my class.

(J.S.) In 8th grade, my family and I went on vacation to Tennessee. While we were there, we saw our neighbors that live down the street from us at home. I thought this was a very weird occurrence because we didn't know our neighbors were going to Tennessee.

(J.S.) I began my freshman year of college by attending an Honors College retreat with about 59 other people. Somehow, I learned through a second-hand source that I have the same birthday as John M. Later that day, while speaking to Jon R, I heard he and the girl I was bunking with, Autumn, shared a birthday. I commented on the coincidence---I, too, had a birthday in common with someone else on the retreat. I inquired about the day, and discovered that all four of us had the same birthday: October 15! The coincidence that I'd share a birthday with someone didn't seem so great; in fact, the probability that two people would share a birthday, out of 60 people, is about .98. The probability for four of us is significantly less, but still not phenomenal.

(K.T.) A personal coincidence that happened to me occurred during a summer vacation trip to Myrtle Beach, SC. Two years ago, my family and I traveled to Myrtle Beach and stayed at the Beach Cove Resort. One day while I was bodysurfing and talking to my sister in the ocean, I spotted someone that looked like someone I graduated with from high school. As the tide brought both of us to shore, my sister and I could see the person better. Then, I heard a "Hey Kristen;" it was Janine. Sure enough, I knew this person. After we talked for a while, she told me she and her family were staying on the 8th floor. I couldn't believe this because my family and I were staying on the 8th floor as well. What were the chances of this happening? I know this seems like a coincidence, but I guess it could be defined by the laws of probability. Since Myrtle Beach is a popular family vacation spot, I guess the occurrences were not that unlikely. However, to me, this seemed like such a coincidence.

(A.W.) My first year roommate was supposedly randomly selected to live with me by Housing Services. She was from Rhode Island. I come from a very small town in Northeastern Pensylvania, Kulpmont. We come from very different socioeconomic, religious, and cultural backgrounds. However, her grandparents were from my small town in PA! The occurrence does seem very unlikely.

(M.B.) This past summer my friends and I went to Ocean City, Maryland for a week. While we were there we met some people that lived in the same building as us. We started talking and we found out they lived in the same hometown that we did. They actually went to the school right next to ours and we had never met before. Then a month later at a Pitt football game with my friends we ran into the same girls again. I thought that this was pretty unlikely to run into the same people we never met before in a time less than a month. on top of that what were the odds we would see each other again at such a crowded place like Heinz field.

(R.E.) The day was September 2, 2001 in my hometown, St. Louis. I was hanging out with my cousins Anthony and Daniel. We decided to go and get some Chinese food. We arrived at the restaurant a little after 3:00 p.m., and made our orders. From a selection of 20 numbers, the number for my order was 3. we got our food and left. On the way home, I noticed someone screaming and pointing down a side street. So I made a U-turn and proceeded to check it out. To my disbelief there was a car upside down in the middle of the street. Out of nowhere I see a young boy lying dead in the street. And not too far from him a young girl. Bystanders rushed my car and told me the driver ran. This day was full of unlikely events. It was 3 of us, at a restaurant around 3:00 p.m., in which I made the 3rd order and ended up on the scene of an accident that involved 3 teens. On top of everything, it was the day before my birthday, which is Sept. 3.

(E.F.) One day I was getting out of the car, and the passenger got out at about the same time and we ended up slamming the car door at the exact same time. I couldn't believe the chances of that happening. Then, a few days later, it happened again with a different person. Now, it frequently happens with many different people. At first I thought that the odds of it happening were very slim, but then I realized that it happens more often than people notice. I think I'm just a person that notices odd things like that, so that's why I thought it was a coincidence.

(M.S.) A coincidence that has occurred in my life pertains to my girlfriend. I have lived in Stanton Heights for the last fifteen years and had attended the neighborhood elementary school. After going to Arsenal middle school, I was accepted in Schenley High School. That is where I met my current girlfriend during eleventh grade. It turned out that she only lived about four blocks away from my house and that she had gone to sunnyside elementary at the same time that I was there. I feel that it is a coincidence that the girl I fell in love with happened to live only four blocks away from my house and that we had gone to the same elementary school together. I have now been dating her for three years and both of us go to the University of Pittsburgh.

(S.S.) My brother, Richie, was studying abroad in Switzerland last year, while my friend Carey was studying in Rome, Italy. Neither of them knew the other one was overseas. In late October, I received a phone call around 7 pm at night from a really weird phone number. It was Carey on the other line and she was with my brother. It turns out that Richie had taken a weekend trip to Rome and Carey spotted him in the same bar! That's a coincidence because who knew they would see each other over in Europe without knowing the other was there!


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