Basic Applied Statistics 200
Coincidences Fall 2004

A coincidence is a surprising concurrence of events, perceived as meaningfully related, but with no apparent causal connection. Should we really be surprised by these coincidences? Remember that when so many "unlikely" events are possible, according to the laws of probability, some of them are bound to happen. Like these...

(L.E.)I actually have two of these coincidence stories that I'd like to share: The first one is that someone in my family has a birthday within 11 days of someone in my fiance's family. My birthday is 10/25 and his brothers birthday is 10/13. My mom's birthday is 8/6, and my fiance's birthday is 8/2. My dad's birthday is 4/27 and his dad's birthday is 4/20. My brothers birthday is 1/14 and his mom's birthday is 1/17. I guess after what we talked about in class today it doesn't seem that coincedental since it is pretty probable that in a group of 8 people, some would have a birthday within 11 days of each other. But it is pretty coincidental that all of us do. The other coincidence is 2 years ago when my family (me, my mom, my dad, my fiance, my brother and his fiance) went on vacation to Belize and we were supposed to take a 9-seater flight in the afternoon to get from the mainland (Belize City) to the island of San Pedro. My dad decided to switch to a flight that was a little bit earlier so we could check into our hotel sooner. We landed in San Pedro, got our bags, and were waiting for a cab at the airport when we heard that a flight that had taken off from Belize City a little bit after our plane had gone down in the ocean. After a little investigation we found out that it was the plane that my family was supposed to be on. Luckily noone on that plane was killed-but all of their belongings, not to mention their vacations, were ruined. This was pretty coincidental that 1) my dad would just randomly decide to switch flights, even though they weren't too far apart from each other. and 2) that the one we were supposed to be on went down when the chances of planes going down in the first place are so low.

(G.D.) Just this past Friday I was walking to the Peterson Events Center to play racquetball. Strangely the sprinklers were watering the lawn that afternoon, something I had never seen. We walked in a zigzag path across the lawn to avoid getting wet. Just as I approached the cement sidewalk a sprinkler flies up from its dormant position and blasts me with a jet of water right in the side of the head. The timing was perfect. I had to be traveling at just the right speed and arrive at the exact moment that this sprinkler popped out of the ground. Even more unlikely is that the sprinkler was on that slowly spins around covering 360 degrees of grass. If it had started off facing another direction I could have quickly avoided its spray. Nevertheless I felt like an idiot, a soaking wet one at that. I think these occurrences were very unlikely (and unfortunate). The fact that the timing had to be exact and the initial starting position of the sprinkler needed to be right at the side of my head make it very unlikely and coincidental that this happened.

(J.F.) I am from a suburb outside of Chicago, Illinois so it's not very common to meet people here that are from my hometown. Well a couple of weeks ago I was getting lunch at a cafeteria on campus and a couple of guys came up to me. We started talking and they asked me where I'm from because the noticed I had an accent. I told them I was from Chicago and one of the guys said he was also from Chicago. I didn't believe him but then he told me his area code was 773, and that is my dad's area code at his work because he works in Chicago. So I told him that and when I told him my dad works for Eli's Cheescake in Chicago the guy said he knew my dad!! I was shocked and didn't really believe him, but then he told me the name of my dad's boss and his three children. It was so ironic. This guy is really close with my dad's boss and he even knows my dad! It was so crazy and it showed me how small of a world it really is.

(J.A.)I first attended the University of Pittsburgh in 1981. One day during my first year I recieved a phone call from the university. They were calling to inform me that there were either 4 or 5 Jeffrey Andersons attending the university at the same time. This was not the coincidence. They were really calling me to inform me that one other Jeff Anderson's social security number was only 1 number different than mine. Back then we used soc sec numbers on tests more often then is done now. So they were letting me know that it was very important not to make any mistakes when writing down my number. I think the coincidence of 4 of us having the same names was not so surprising, but the part with the social security number seems alot less likely. I am really not sure how to figure out the probability, but would like to know.

(J.S.) I was enlisted in the United States Airforce from 1997-2001 and my first assignment was Incirlik, Turkey. I left Turkey in October 1998. In April 1999 I was deployed to Albania for the Kosovo "War" and bumped into this man Ivan that I had met in Turkey. He was a reservist and lived in Florida. Just so happens that we were at the same logistics tent picking up the exact same thing... socks. Last March, I went to see David Copperfield downtown and a girl that I was stationed with in North Carolina was seated 2 rows in front of me. She actually lives in Hawaii and was in town for a wedding. In June, I was on a job interview at Shootz Cafe in the South Side and after it was over I decided to have a drink with a friend that worked there instead of going home. After about a half an hour, I recognized this guy Justin and both of our jaws dropped. He was my next door neighbor in Turkey! He happened to have been at Shootz for the very first time to sign up for a pool tournament. We did our catching up and went on our ways. 2 weeks ago, he was at the bar I currently work at playing our team in a league tournament. You may post it if you'd like.

(A.E.) The very improbable situation that first comes to my mind occurred last summer at the Philadelphia Folk festival. At the fest, there was this big black fly that wouldnt leave me and my friends alone. My friend Meghan was swatting at the fly and was wearing a ring with a stone in it (not a precious stone, just some brown/orange stone). Meghan managed to hit the fly in mid-air, but not only that, when she hit it, she hit it with her ring and the stone cracked. I thought it was pretty improbable and amazing that the fly had managed to hit the ring at just the right spot to make it crack.

(J.I.)Playing golf a few years back, I hit my tee shot to the left of the fairway on the third whole. I didn't quite see where the ball landed, but I figured it would be easy enough to find once I got down to where it was. There was another hole directly beside the one we were playing and there were people on that hole too. When I got down there, I saw a ball and went over to take a look at it. It matched up exactly with the brand name and number of the one that I had hit. I set up for my second shot at the green and then started to move on. Right after I hit the ball, the people on the whole beside us came over looking for a ball they had hit in that area too. I told them I had only seen mine, and he asked what type and number it was. I told him and then he exclaimed that, that was exactly what his was too. After a little more searching, we found the second ball. He decided just to hit that one since we really couldn't tell if it was mine or his. It seems like there are lots of different combinations of names and numbers that can go on golf balls, but there really aren't. There are maybe like 5 top brands with only several different possibilities for numbers, so it really wasn't that far of a reach. It just seemed really weird at the time.

(A.H.)My cousin and I were walking to class in high school, when we were stopped by a teacher that we both had had at one point in time. The teacher came up to us, looked at my cousin and told her that she had a picture of her. When we walked to the teachers room to see the picture, it was a picture of me the whole time. What made the story even more crazy is that even with my cousin and I standing next to each other looking at the picture, the teacher still did not even realize that she had made a mistake, so we just went along with it.

(M.S.)My story of coincidence is as follows: At a soccer tournament a few years ago, my dad, named Michael F. Smith and I (Michael A. Smith) were watching a soccer game. The two people in front of us had our names. The father was Michael A. Smith and the son was Michael F. Smith, the reverse of my fater and I. Pretty strange huh?

(G.S.)I have a bit of an awkward coincidence story. Freshmen year when I was living in Towers my next door neighbor was my girlfriend's ex-boyfriend. I suppose it wasn't that bad though, we actually because good friends (much to my girlfriend's dismay). Well that's the best coincidence story I can think of.

(J.S.)I had something happen to me a couple of years ago that I think is fairly coincidental. One weekend during my freshman year here some friends and I decided last minute to go to New York City for the weekend. One of the places that we planned on visiting was the top of the Empire State building. While looking over lower Manhattan, a woman came up to me and asked me my name, because she thought that she recognized me. I told her, and she asked if I knew who she was. I said that I didnt think so, then she asked where I was from, and I told her, and she said I thought so, As it turned out, she was my kindergarden teacher. How ocincidental to run into my teacher 600 mi from home in one of the largest cities in the world!

(M.S.) This is Mike States. My story actually happened today. I was watching the Steeler game and late in the fourth quarter I made a prediction. I told my brother that on the next drive Troy Polamalu would intercept a pass and return it for a touchdown. About a minute later this is exactly what happened. Granted, like many other spectators, I make these types of predictions all of the time. Almost all of the time I am wrong. For this particular event to have happened was very unlikely. First of all, Carson Palmer had to throw the interception. Then, out of the 11 defensive players, only Polamalu could have intercepted the ball. Finally, Polamalu had to return it for a touchdown. Overall, it was a pretty strange occurance.

(S.R.) So my family and I were at the Atlanta International Airport transferring planes on our way to visit relatives. We were walking to our terminal and I noticed a familiar face passing by. It was one of my friends that I met here at Pitt. I called her name but she had already passed and I didn't feel it necessary to gain her attention. I asked her about it the first week of school and it definately was her. We both thought it was the oddest thing. Of all the people at the airport I saw her. It was even more imporbable because it was in Georgia. I wouldn't have been as surprised if it was the Philadelphia airport. But yeah, that's my story.

(E.B.) My coincidence story is relatively simple and I'm sure has happened to many people. Last week I was sitting at my computer singing a song in my head. I stopped singing and turned on my radio to hear what was currently playing and guess what? It was the song I had been singing in my head a few seconds earlier. At the time I thought that was so cool, but now after thinking about it, I guess it wasn't that unlikely. Each radio station plays a certain number of songs each day and typically plays each one more than once. So since I had been singing a relatively new song that the station plays numerous times a day, the coincidence was not so unusual.

(N.V.) When my dad worked for the US Treasury Department in the late seventies he had to live in Saudi Arabia for two years. One day he was down in the mail room and he met a woman who had just been hired, and she noticed his last name of his name tag and inquired about it. She asked if he was related to the Visnick family from Trafford, Pennsylvania. He wasn't, but he actually knew them and he happened to mention how he is a Visnick from Export, Pennsylvania. As it turns out this woman's husband went to grade school with my dad's mom and they lived two doors down from each other while growing up. And to think they met and made the connection on the other side of the world of Pennsylvania, USA!!

(S.B.)I am told every once in a while that I look like someones cousin, or friend. Now it may sound simple, but I think its strange - what are the chances that i look like 5 peoples cousins or friends. Its a strange coincidense.

(H.R.)My uncle lives in a little town near Dallas, Texas, and there is an news anchorman who is well known in that area. My uncle often gets funny looks when he is out and about town, and people even comment or approach him, because his is almost the twin image of this anchorman. They are so well known as looking alike, my uncle even was able to get a picture of himself with the anchorman. The funny things is that not only do they look like twin brothers, but even though they are totally unrelated, they have the same last name, which only adds to the confusion.

(C.Q.)Since the first day of Kindergarten, I had a best friend. Lauren and I lived on the same street, went to the same school, had the same teacher, and basically lived at each others' houses. When we were in sixth grade, one of my relatives passed away, and the same day, her mother also had a funeral to attend. It turns out that my grandma's cousin was her mom's aunt. Now technically I do not know how that relates us, but I do know we thought it was the coolest thing and we called ourselves fifth cousins.

(T.L.) i live in a very small town. my friend and i had just spent a month in africa and had a day-long layover in london on the way home. we were walking through london and ran into a kid that we knew from back home who had been in australia for a few months.

(V.P.) When I was in the 5th grade - the first day of class I discovered that someone else had my first name - Victoria (this had never happened to me before just because it is not a very common name.) I later found out that she also shared a birthday with me - and that we were born in the same hospital (being that we were military brats that chances of that were unlikely because we had both had moved since then.)

(A.L.) A few weeks ago my friend who is a senior in high school came to visit and she decided she wanted to go on a tour of the University. At first I did not want to join her, but I finally decided that since she was my guest I should attend the tour along with her. This was a good because I learned very much about the University, and also because I wanted to apply for a Pathfinder position and this would give me an idea about what it would be like. After a presentation, we randomly joined one of the groups and were ready to go on a tour with a Pathfinder as our guide. Even before our Pathfinder introduced himself, my friend said she thought he seemed familiar. When he did tell us about himself, he said he is from Youngstown, my home town, and that he went to the local high school. This is when my friend realized she was in a play with him a few years earlier. Moreover, he mentioned something about the Romanian nationality rooms, and when I asked him he said his grandparents are Romanian.

(R.K.) A few months ago I went down to the court house to pay a parking ticket for my boyfriend. When I gave them his name they told me that I needed pay about $350 for several unpaid parking tickets. Shocked I left without paying for anything. My boyfriend later found out that someone with his same name had acquired many parking tickets. He got everything straightened out and only had to pay for his one ticket.

(R.M.) My story is rather short, but funny. It was definitely a coincidence that it happened, but just as you told us the story in lecture, two people having the same name or birthday is really not that big of a coincidence. I was with my friends in Los Angeles last summer and we went to a Dodgers game while we were there. My friends thought it would be funny if they pretended I was lost in the stadium and go to security to get my name announced over the loudspeaker. To make a long story short, I did not know that they were doing this, so of course when I heard my name telling me to go to security I went. There ended up being two other Ryan Mayle's in the stadium that came over as well and it thought it was quite a large coincidence that there were three Ryan Mayle's at the game.

(A.O.) This story isn't the best coincidence story but I think it may do. Once when I was out at this bar, Zythos, and a guy I sometimes saw, but didn't really know, came up to me. He asked me if my name was Ashley. I said yes and we started to conversate. He asked me if I knew this guy and this girl, some friends of mine that he was also friends with. He said that he was told to go talk to this girl named Ashley with blonde hair about starting a clothing line or something of the sort. So he thought it was me. I started talking about how that would be fun and i love fashion and so forth. But then he started to ask me about my "drawing skills". I don't know how to draw, Im not an artist at all ( i love to doodle random pictures-does that count?). So I told him I don't draw, he almost didn't believe me, he's like "yes you can, I've seen ur stuff". "Hmm I was like umm no, wanna see?" Turns out he was seeking a different girl named Ashley with blonde hair, that was friends with so and so, (who I was friends with, so is she), who hangs out at Zythos also. The occurances were not really so unlikely

(F.F.)A coincidence occurred in my life when one summer I came back from LAs Vegas and told my friends that I had seen Tom Arnold eating at a restaurant. I was lying though. But the next year I went again to LAs Vegas and really did see Tom Arnold eating at the Buffet at the Rio.

(C.B.) My family and I moved into a new house two years ago. The development is new and most of the houses are replicas of the model houses with a few variations. When we first moved in we were upset because the house next door was just like ours. One evening I drove up to my house tired from work parked behind my mother and fathers car and walked to the front door. I looked up and noticed the door was not like mine. I had parked at my neighbors house! Turns out not only were our houses identical, but the man and woman of the houses both drove the exact same make and model of the car.

(J.G.) This coincidence happened just last week, so it seems to be an odd coincidence that we are talking about coincidences. About two months ago I went to the Pittsburgh Public School Board is search for a tutoring job, something I have been doing for the last year. The lady there said she would contact me within a week or two to inform me of the school I was to report to. However, I did not hear from her and so last week I went job hunting because I was starting to run low on cash. I went in to a restaurant in Shadyside and was hired on the spot, unfortunately I have work in restaurants and am not found of the way employees are treated in these establishments. But with little money I was not one to be picky so I accepted. On Friday I was to begin training at the restaurant, but low and behold I received an e-mail from the P.P.S.B. letting me know tutoring was about to begin. Even though I was relieved to hear this news I did feel bad quitting before I even began.

(N.L.) In my 11th grade english class we were picking groups for a group assignment and I had already picked two other people I wanted to work with. The teacher then told us that she was goin to pick the groups at random because everyone did not have a group. I ended up with the same two people that I had picked in the beginning, which was a pretty cool coincidence.

(E.H.)I met a girl named Tara at the beach the summer before freshman year and we had both talked about how we were going to Pitt in the fall. We said we should exchange information, but never got around to it before the end of the week. The summer passed and I came to Pitt. The first day of biology class I sat next to a girl and could not figure out why she looked so familiar. She recognized me as well. We ended up sitting together for the next few classes until we finally figured out we met each other at senior week.

(B.B.)This summer, while I was visiting Pittsburgh with my family, we decided that we would go out to eat, do a little shopping at Ross Park Mall, and then finally go to a Pirates game. As I was coming out of a store in the mall, I ran into an old friend that I hadn't seen in a few years. We both thought that it was very odd to see each other in Pittsburgh because we are both from the same hometown 2 hours away and hadn't ran into eachother there instead. We caught up a little and I asked what he had planned for the rest of the day and it turned out that he was going to the Pirates game as well! We both laughed at the coincidence and then said our goodbyes. Well, later that evening at the game, I got a phone call from my friend. He said that he could see me from where he was sitting and when I looked I saw that he was just one section over. It was a very strange coincidence to see him again, especially in a 20,000+ attendance stadium.

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