import numpy as np from sklearn.metrics import brier_score_loss import pandas as pd import random df = pd.read_csv("samplesubmission_datacompetition.csv") y_pred = df.HomeWP # this is your probabilistic prediction vector # the following will include the actual outcome: 1 if home team wins 0 otherwise # for now we generate a random vector for illustration y_true = [] for i in range(len(df.HomeWP)): y_true.append(round(random.uniform(0, 1))) brier_score_loss(y_true, y_pred) # when providing everything with 0.5 probability you should get a Brier score of 0.25. # If your solution is improving over this you are at the right direction