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Probability Plots

Used to determine if a random sample comes from a specific distribution (e.g., Normal or Exponential).

Basis:We compare the (100*p)th percentile of the sample data set with the (100*p)th percentile of the distribution we think it came from, and see how close they are to each other.
We will take the ithsmallest observation as the [100*(i-0.5)/n]th percentile of the sample data set
Example: Consider the following sample data set of n=5 points (arranged in ascending order): Y1= 3.01, Y2=3.35, Y3=4.79, Y4=5.96, Y5=7.89.  Could this have come from a Normal distribution with  m=5 and s=2, i.e., N(5,2) distribution?

Question: Why (i-0.5)/n?

Answer: Exact percentiles are impossible to compute for a data set of arbitrary sample size n!  This is a compromise: for each i there are (i-1) values that are smaller and i values that are equal or larger, so we take the average of i and (i-1)...

So we get the table below (n=5):
 

i
(i-0.5)/n
Yi Zi Xi=5+2*Zi
1 0.1 (10th sample percentile)= 3.01 -1.28
2.44 = (10th N(5,2) percentile)
2 0.3 (30th sample percentile)= 3.35 -0.525 3.95 = (30th N(5,2) percentile)
3 0.5 (50th sample percentile)= 4.79 0 5.00 = (50th N(5,2) percentile)
4 0.7 (70th sample percentile)= 5.96 0.525 6.05 = (70th N(5,2) percentile)
5 0.9 (90th sample percentile)= 7.89 1.28 7.56 = (90th N(5,2) percentile)

A plot of Xi vs. Yi should thus yield a straight line with slope=1 (45°) if the values are close to each other.


Normal Probability Plots

Used to determine if a random sample comes from a Normal distribution (with some unknown m and s).  Based on the fact that x = m + zas.
So, if the sample did indeed come from a Normal distribution, and every sample percentile was exactly equal to its theoretical Normal percentile (xa), then a plot of the data against its corresponding z percentile (za)would yield a straight line with slope s and intercept m!

Our example yields:




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Jayant Rajgopal