Causal models, value of intervention, and search for opportunities

Authors:

Tsai-Ching Lu and Marek J. Druzdzel

Abstract:

While algorithms for influence diagrams allow for computing the optimal setting for decision variables, they offer no guidance in generation of decision variables, arguably a critical stage of decision making. A decision maker confronted with a complex system may not know which variables to best manipulate to achieve a desired objective. We introduce the concept of search for opportunities which amounts to identifying the set of decision variables and computing their optimal settings, given an objective expressed by a utility function. Search for opportunities is built on value of intervention in causal models.