The emerging science of very early detection of disease outbreaks

Authors:

Michael M. Wagner
Fu-Chiang Tsui
Jeremy U. Espino
Virginia M. Dato
Dean F. Sittig
Richard A. Caruana
Laura F. McGinnis
David W. Deerfield
Marek J. Druzdzel
and Douglas B. Fridsma

Abstract:

A surge of development of new public health surveillance systems designed to provide more timely detection of outbreaks suggests that public health has a new requirement: extreme timeliness of detection. The authors review previous work relevant to measuring timeliness and to defining timeliness requirements. Using signal detection theory and decision theory, the authors identify strategies to improve timeliness of detection and position ongoing system development within that framework.