ESP: A mixed-initiative decision-theoretic decision modeling system

Author: Marek J. Druzdzel
Decision Systems Laboratory
School of Information Sciences
and Intelligent Systems Program
University of Pittsburgh
135 North Bellefield Avenue
Pittsburgh, PA 15260, U.S.A.
e-mail: marek@sis.pitt.edu

Abstract:

Systems built on decision-theoretic principles typically rely on models that contain a fixed in advance set of objectives and decision variables. This paper describes a decision-theoretic decision modeling system under development in the Decision Systems Laboratory that departs from this tra-dition and allows for flexible construction and later recon-struction of models according to the current objectives of the user. Given the knowledge of causal mechanisms acting in the system, a set of objectives, costs, and preferences en-coded in the model, the system can take the initiative in dis-covering decision opportunities, framing decision problems, and solving them.